Hail in Minnesota, May 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
OVERALL CHALLENGE IN SHORT RANGE FCST IS TIMING AND BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THE RESIDENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
PRIMARY CHALLENGE BEING TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVING
BEEN WELL SURPASSED TODAY...SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES. GOES WV LOOP SHOWS TWO
SHORTWAVES BOTH HELPING TO TRIGGERING CONVECTION...ONE OVER NW MN
AND THE OTHER RACING EAST ACROSS CTRL SD. THE LATTER IS MORE
POTENT AND MAIN REASON FOR INCREASING POPS OVER WRN MN TONIGHT.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CTRL MN WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ENTERING WRN AREA...WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A SFC SOURCE OF LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH MANY LAYERS OF
CLOUDS AND THE SUPPORT OF WARMER MOS...HAVE BUMPED UP MINS TNGHT.

VORT MAX STILL CENTERED OVER SRN MN ON WEDS WITH MOISTURE WOUND
AROUND SYSTEM. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS AND
QPF BULLSEYES OVER WRN MN. HAVE LEANED FURTHER EAST WITH HIGHER
POPS...OVER CTRL MN...AS WARMER SFC TEMPS AND BETTER INSTABILITY
VALUES WARRANT. MOS GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW. HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH MIDDLE GROUND MET MOS WHICH
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS CWA. WEST
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW HEATING IN WI...WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA AND BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WARRANT LOWER VALUES OVER WRN AND CTRL MN.

POPS CONTINUE THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT RANGE...BUT COLD CORE UPPER
LOW MOVING ATOP AREA STILL SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY
THAN GENERAL RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER WRN WI...AS PREFERRED
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WEST AND DEEPER WITH SFC LOW
RIDING FROM SRN STREAM. SREF GUIDANCE ALSO HAS LITTLE LEAST
DEVIATION OF QPF IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE HAVE HIGHEST POPS AND
COOLEST TEMPS OVER WRN WI. THURS AND FRI MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS OFFER A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION ON VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF DEEP UPPER LOW. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS EASTERN AREAS AS LEAST THRU SATURDAY.  LEFT SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW.  AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP EARLY IN THE
WEEK SHOULD SEE REMAINDER OF PERIOD CONTINUING COOL BUT DRY WITH
LONG FETCH OF NORTH WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN U.S.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MTF/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
415 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

MNZ057-092230-
KANDIYOHI-
511 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...
AT 510 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...OVER NORTHERN
KANDIYOHI COUNTY. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SPICER AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
SPICER AND NEW LONDON COULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH
530 PM.

REMAIN ALERT FOR FUTURE STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

MNZ051-092325-
SHERBURNE-
557 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...
AT 555 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SHERBURNE COUNTY. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF ZIMMERMAN AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15
MPH. THE COMMUNITY OF ZIMMERMAN AND RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
SHERBURNE COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 625 PM.

REMAIN ALERT FOR FUTURE STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RAH