Minnesota, 2006

Flooding in Minnesota, March 31, 2006

March 31, 2006 · NWS FGF · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Prior to the start of the spring flood of 2006, several things pointed to a higher potential for flooding. Convective storms during the summer and fall of 2005 dropped a lot of rain across Richland, Ransom, and Sargent counties in southeast ND.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.

Prior to the start of the spring flood of 2006, several things pointed to a higher potential for flooding. Convective storms during the summer and fall of 2005 dropped a lot of rain across Richland, Ransom, and Sargent counties in southeast ND. Flows on many rivers, especially the mainstem Red River, were above normal. Snowfall through the winter was above normal along the Canadian border from Langdon (ND) to Cavalier (ND) to Hallock (MN), and also between the area from Fargo (ND) to Wahpeton (ND) to Battle Lake (MN) and to Detroit Lakes (MN). Temperature patterns over the main snowpack area through mid to late March stayed cool. The longer temperatures stayed cool, the better potential there was for a rapid snowmelt. And a rapid snowmelt is exactly what happened. Quite a few locations still reported snow on the ground on March 28th. In the following days, temperatures stayed above freezing, even at night. On the morning of March 30th, a broad area of surface low pressure set up from north central South Dakota into eastern Colorado. This kept warm and steady south to southeast winds over the remaining snowpack, further aiding its melt. To top it off, thunderstorms also developed on March 30th. Rain on top of the remaining snow also contributed to the quick snowmelt. By March 31st, only a few locations near the Canadian border had snow left. The meltwater quickly flowed into low areas, which resulted in road washouts and closures. As the water moved into river systems, many bridges were inundated with water. Since the flood of 1997, many communities have undergone major flood mitigation efforts. Buyouts of flood-prone homes and the construction of permanent city dikes, river diversions, and farmstead ring dikes were all started, in hopes of reducing the impacts of future floods. However, prior to the spring flood of 2006, problem areas still remained. Permanent dikes had yet to be completed at Wahpeton/Breckenridge and at Grand Forks/East Grand Forks. Permanent dike protection still had not started for residents of south Fargo. In constrast to river flooding, protection can be very difficult against overland flooding. When large amounts of snow quickly melt, the water can pond anywhere. And in the relatively flat Red River Valley, it can take a long time to recede. For more specific information (including damage amounts) on the spring flood, see the Storm Data narratives for April 2006 (when all of the river crests occurred).

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 30, 9:22 PM CST, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 30, 9:22 PM CST, 2 hours 38 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
922 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RADAR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE BORDER.
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...CLOSE OFF AND TAKE ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT.  WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO INDICATED A WEAK CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER NORTHWEST SD. DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWEST ND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SHOWALTER INDICES WERE NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING WHICH
SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MN BY MORNING. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WERE SMALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND ALSO SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN MN BY MORNING. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE GFS PREFERRED. SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHEAST SD
WITH A NORTH SOUTH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER. RAIN AND SOME STORMS WERE FIRING ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH.
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ALSO BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TAPER OFF TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN AROUND AN INCH TONIGHT.
CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS ARE ACCEPTABLE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUSED ON SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVER ALL TRACK OF CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING FROM LOWS
GIVING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL RELY ON
MORE CONSISTENT GFS FOR FORECAST BUT TONE DOWN RAIN AMOUNTS BASED ON
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH MODEL.

SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO LIFT NE TO NEAR MSP BY 12Z
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SE SD TO OK WILL ALSO
PROPAGATE NE. NORTHERN FRINGE LIKELY TO AFFECT FAR SE ND INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING BASED ON ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND
COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL. AS
LOW LIFTS NE INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST AFT 06Z RESULTING IN MORE
GENERAL RAINFALL. TO OUR NW AS LOW LIFTS NE COLUMN COOLS
SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAIN OR SNOW MIX OVER FAR NW SHIFTING TO WEST RED
VALLEY BY 12Z. WARM GROUND WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. NAM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WHERE GFS INVERTED TROUGH
ORIENTED NW-SE AND HANGS UP LONGER OVER FA. AS A RESULT EXPECT PCPN
THREAT TO LINGER LONGER OVER FA INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT GENERAL
.50-.75 AMOUNTS ACROSS VALLEY INCREASING TO GENERAL INCH AMOUNTS
ALONG AN ELBOW LAKE/BDE LINE. CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAY ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS COMPOUNDING AREAL/RIVER FLOOD THREAT.

BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER CURRENT RAPID SNOWMELT HAVE EXPANDED
AREAL FLOOD WARNING NORTHWARD INTO CASS AND CLAY COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED FLOOD WATCH ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AS FAR NORTH AS GFK AND
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN.

PCPN WINDS DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MIX PCPN CONTINUING
HOWEVER AGAIN WITH WARM GROUND AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BACK SIDE OF LOW WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
AND 30-40 KTS TO MIX DOWN.

SHOULD SEE QUIET PERIOD TO START OUT WEEKEND BEFORE NEXT RAIN CHANCE
COME BACK INTO PICTURE ON SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST
POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN MODEST POPS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP MON WITH UPPER RIDGE PROPAGATING
THROUGH. UPPER FLOW TURNS SW BY TUE AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES W COAST.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT -RA CHANCES TUE-WED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...THEN INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR THU-FRI AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHLAND AND CASS COUNTY. FLOOD WATCH
FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ027-NDZ029-NDZ030.

MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR WILKIN AND CLAY COUNTY. FLOOD WATCH
FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ001-MNZ002-MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ017-MNZ022-
MNZ023-MNZ024-MNZ027-MNZ028-MNZ030-MNZ031-MNZ032-MNZ040.
&&

HOPPES
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 30, 1:40 PM CST, 10 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
140 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-311230-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
140 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...FLOODING WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES...

...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FARGO
TO BAUDETTE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH WEST OF HALLOCK TO VALLEY CITY LINE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY
FROM THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
ACCELERATED SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
OVERLAND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MAINLY FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM A MUCH MORE
TRANQUIL PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THE DAY WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD
FURTHER INCREASE THE SNOW MELT CYCLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN PRECIPITATION REPORTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TEAM FGF

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Kittson

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Kittson County, Countywide
Reported by
OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates
48.777, -96.783 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Marshall

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Marshall County, Countywide
Reported by
OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates
48.358, -96.368 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Roseau

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Roseau County, Countywide
Reported by
OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
Coordinates
48.775, -95.811 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Minnesota in 2006Every state in 2006This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, March 2006

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5497643, 5497644, 5497645.