Hail in Minnesota, June 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE
GETS ASSAULTED BY WEAK WAVES AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WITH A TREND
TO ZONAL FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST DILEMMAS INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES...AND THE WARMING TREND TO TEMPERATURES.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM NEAR KSTL TO THE
DETROIT AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH RUNNING FROM NORTHERN WI TO SOUTHWEST MN...TO THE BLACK HILLS.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WY...WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS IMPEDING
ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOG ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY SHOWS CASTELLANUS
IN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND FROM ND TO NORTHEAST IA/KDBQ AREA.
ALSO SOME MID CLOUD AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST WI AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

OVERALL FAVOR THE GFS MODEL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY IGNORING INPUT FROM OTHER MODELS. CURRENT CONVECTION
SHOULD MAINTAIN INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH
DIURNAL LOSS OF LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT. STILL EXPECT CLOUD AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.  HAVE
KEPT POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

KEEPING TONIGHT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING.  STILL FEEL
THERE WILL BE A BAND OF CASTELLANUS RUNNING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF THE MID-DECK...BUT WITH A LULL IN
OTHER FORCING WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT THIS TIME.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE TO OUR WEST HOWEVER...AND THESE
REMNANTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HARD TO TELL JUST HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE INTO THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE IT
OUT.  WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING MORE OF THE ENERGY
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. MODEL TREND THE PAST FEW RUNS ACTUALLY HAS
MORE ENERGY REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY AS
THE LONG WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN TRIES TO CUT OFF.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE INTO THE AREA...SO WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH POPS. BEST SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAPER POPS IN THAT FASHION.

TEMPERATURES TO REALLY HEAT UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP.  WARM AND HUMID
WILL BE THE WORDS BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING 90.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE LOOKING MESSY WITH ZONAL FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS POINT WITH
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

MW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
510 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ086-087-094-095-WIZ054-055-061-151000-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-
GRANT-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK-
510 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AS A WARMER AND GRADUALLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...
WILL COME FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN WHAT WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS...AND A
SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY SHOULD BE MONITORED. ANY SMALL HAIL
REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MNZ079-088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-151000-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLARK-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-TAYLOR-
TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
510 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...
WILL COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN WHAT WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS...AND A
SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BINAU