Hail in Minnesota, July 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE PANNED OUT THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH AS THOUGHT YESTERDAY.
MORNING MCS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH SPAWNED SOME SCT BOUTS
OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS PRETTY MUCH PUT THE KABOSH ON ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. THE ONLY AREA STILL OF CONCERN
IS NEAR THE IOWA BORDER (WHERE DECENT CAP STILL IN PLACE) WHERE WARM
FRONTAL BNDRY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVR NW IOWA
WILL BE LINE OF POSSIBLE EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM GENESIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT EXPECT SPC HAS CONTINUED
THE TREND OF SAGGING AREA OF MDT SVR THREAT SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING FARTHER SOUTH. THEIR THINKING PLACES BEST THREAT JUST
SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND THEN SE INTO IL. BEST BULK
SHEAR...LAPSE RATES...VGPS...JOULES...AND 250MB DIVERGENCE
COUPLETS DEFINITELY OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS
STILL IN PLACE COUPLED WITH BEST HEATING...FOR POSSILBE ISOLATED
SEVERE OVER OUR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING. REMAINDER
OF CHANCE OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE TONIGHT. USED
GSF40 FOR TIMING OF SHORT TERM THINKING...WITH NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA...IN RESPONSE TO BEST THETA E ADVECTION/310K COND
PRESSURE DEFICITS. MOISTURE WILL BE THE WILD CARD WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE HALF TO ONE THIRD CURRENT VALUES. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MUTED. NEXT SLT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED SATURAY AFTN WITH EVEN WEAKER SHORT WAVE. OTHER
THEN THAT EXPECT A NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

LONGER TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LONG WAVE HEIGHT PATTERN TO TURN MORE MERIDIONAL BY START OF LONG
RANGE FCST PD...THEN BY MIDWEEK THE WRN CONUS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
OSCILLATE BACK EWRD INTO THE MISS VALLEY. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS TO END
THE WEEKEND WITH A CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING SE OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
FINAL AND STRONGEST RIPPLE IN NW FLOW TO BRING A SFC FRONT THRU AREA
ON MON. SO SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP ON SUN NIGHT AND MON STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR ERN AREAS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK THE WAA RETURN ATTM LOOKS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR POPS ON WEDS.
1000-500MB THICKNESSES BACK NEAR TO 580 DAM PROGGED BY THE 12Z GFS
FOR WEDS SO FCST HIGHS BACK AT 90F.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

AZ/MF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
752 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
210100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
752 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
925 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

MNZ083-200300-
BLUE EARTH-
925 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...SIGNIFCANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLUE EARTH COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
CDT...

AT 924 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE CRYSTAL...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANKATO...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL BLUE EARTH COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF LAKE
CRYSTAL...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

KAT