Damaging Wind in Minnesota, July 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
355 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

...CONCERNING STORMS ENTERING CASS/ITASCA COUNTIES...

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE INCREASING OVER CASS/ITASCA/
KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.

ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE PREVIOUS
MESOSCALE AFD WAS ISSUED AT 306 PM. HOWEVER..STORMS JUST WEST OF
LEECH LAKE HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH FREEZING/-20C LEVELS AND MARGINAL SHEAR HAS
RESULTED IN MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURE. VOLUMETRIC REFL DATA FROM
KDLH/KMVX INDICATES STRONGEST REFL CORES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY BELOW -20C
LEVEL..SUGGESTING HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SMALL AND/OR MELTING HAIL
MAY BE CONCENTRATED IN LOWEST HALF OF CONVECTIVE ECHOES.  THIS
SITUATION WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED WET MICROBUSRTS.

REPORT OF 3 IN TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN IN BEMIDJI JUST RECEIVED VIA
FGF SEEMS TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO THIS THINKING..SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO WRN CWA VERY CLOSELY FOR NEXT 1-2
HRS.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

 MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
138 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-141200-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
138 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS
WEST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO BRAINERD AFTER 4
PM. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS... WITH A RISK OF
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.

COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA... WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE THREAT OF DIME
TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER... AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED
ACCOMPANY AN EASTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS... AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

 MILLER