Funnel Cloud in Louisiana, April 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HATTIESBURG TO MORGAN CITY PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR INITIALLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE AN INVERSION TO
DEVELOP...REINFORCING THE STRATUS LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE SKIES OUT IN THE MORNING HOURS...LEADING TO
A SUNNY AND DRY DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP...AND SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO CROSS OVER THE CWA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO A WARM AND MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL SET
US UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSIT THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...AS ANOTHER JET COUPLET
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WOULD ENHANCE
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE OVERALL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT
SHOT OF COOL AIR COULD COME DOWN FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 560 RANGE. THIS
WOULD DEFINITELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERALL...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  78  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  54  79  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  76  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  56  77  58  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1051 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-271100-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1051 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED AS RAIN COOLED AIR FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IN THE MORNING SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE
REGION.  AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN STRONG AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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