Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, July 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)...

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE REGION. THE FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR STL TO INDY TO CLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE
GREAT AMOUNT OF HEATING THE AREA RECEIVED ALONG WITH LACK OF ANY
CAP...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SOME STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH
THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN BE EXPLAINED WITH
THE FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...AND PWATS JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FA. CLOUDS WILL KEEP AREA FAIRLY WARM AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
MOST IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION AREA WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S...A BIT A SUN LATE IN THE DAY
MAY PUSH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. --SCHOTT

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY THE
WEEKEND. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 50S. WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

JA

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS AFTER 3 PM EDT TODAY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AFTER 6 PM EDT OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND AFTER DARK OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH
HIGH WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. SOME SPOTS MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OF
RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LEADING TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH
FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR 70 WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN
95 AND 100. IF OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER...AND WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS AGAIN WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOWLING
GREEN TO COLUMBIA LINE...BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

SCHOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

KYZ032-033-041845-
HENRY-TRIMBLE-
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

AT 156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEDFORD...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CARROLLTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
28 AND 35.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES.

JA