Heavy Snow in Kentucky, February 18, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DID A RAPID UPDATE A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW WHICH
COVERED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN TIP.
REPORTS FROM BATH...FLEMING...AND ROWAN COUNTIES SHOWED DEPTHS
NEARING 2 INCHES AROUND 9:30 AM. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED OUR
REMAINING COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE
NORTH WILL PROBABLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER...WITH TOTALS IN OUR
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND FLEMING COUNTY 911 SAYING ROADS WERE VERY
SLICK...THOUGHT IT BEST TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. USED TOTALS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES. HAVE HELD ONTO A WARNING IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH IF IT HAPPENS IT WILL PROBABLY BE
MARGINAL. HOWEVER...HAVE GOTTEN BURNED BEFORE BY CANCELLING A
WARNING ONLY TO HAVE IT VERIFY. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE VERY
ELEVATION DEPENDENT BEING THAT TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING AT ALL
ELEVATIONS AND UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL...SO HAVE USED NEAR 4
INCHES FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

418 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

HIGH PRESS LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL MS VLY KEEPS A NORTH FLOW INTO THE
AREA. THIS HAS OUR TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND THEY SHOULD STAY THERE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PCPN SHOWING ON 88D ACROSS TN/KY...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-64. HOWEVER WITH DWPTS AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEG BELOW
TEMPS...PCPN IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE SFC. MOST RETURNS
ARE FROM VIRGA. AREA SKEW-T INDICATE A VERY DRY LLVL AIRMASS. THIS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SFC. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN AROUND DAWN WITH BEST ACCUM IN OUR SRN
COUNTIES AND THEN IN OUR ERN MTN COUNTIES.

BOTH NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO PLACEMENT AND QUANTITY OF
SNOWFALL. MINOR DIFF HAS GFS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SN FOR OUR NWRN
COUNTIES AND NAM WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER TOTALS FOR THE MTNS. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE NAM DUE TO ITS BETTER HANDLING OF PCPN AS IT MOVED
ACROSS AR/MO AND ITS BETTER MODELING OF THE LOWEST LVLS. TEMPS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF DEG BETWEEN MODELS AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH THE NAM THRU DAY 2 AND THEN THE GFS FOR ITS
COOLER READINGS.

SPEED OF MVMT OF THE PCPN HAS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SN OUT OF THE
AREA BEFORE 00Z TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR OUR ERN MOST COUNTIES. STILL
EVEN IN THE MTNS SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW UPSLOPE FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUM AS THE UPSLOPE IS NOT OPTIMUM. HIGH THEN BUILDS IN
AND SUPPRESSES ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED SO HAVE NOT
TINKERED WITH NUMBERS PAST 5TH PD.

1008 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE IS REQUIRED. TOOK A QUICK LOOK
AT THE 00 GMT NAM AND IT WAS SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET OF THE SNOW. THE
NEW NAM ALSO HAS LESS SNOW THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS. STILL HAVE
NOT SEEN THE GFS OUTPUT. THE SNOW MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 AM EST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SHUTTING DOWN THE MOST SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SNOW AT ABOUT 4 PM SATURDAY. IT WILL QUIT SOONER FURTHER TO
THE NORTH.

WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. MID SHIFT WILL EVALUATE ANY
CHANGES AFTER THE 00 GFS COMES IN.

533 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

FOR THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS POINTED TOWARD A MARGINAL WARNING EVENT FOR
SNOW OVER A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT COMBINE TO BRING THE PRECIP. LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...SO PRECIP TYPE IS NOT AN ISSUE. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND HAVE OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND NAM. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OPTED FOR A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OUR
VA BORDER COUNTIES BORDERING MRX...WITH AROUND 4 INCHES. NORTH OF
THIS...UP TO ABOUT JACKSON AND PAINTSVILLE...HAVE USED AN ADVISORY.

VERY COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. COLDEST TEMPS MAY BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD AFFECT US SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT
THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP IS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEYOND 84
HOURS. BUT AFTER THE 12Z MORNING RUN OF THE GFS...MODELS APPEAR TO
BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT FIRST
HAD USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. JUST SO
HAPPENS THAT THE 12Z GFS RUN COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THAT THINKING. SO DECIDED TO GO BACK AND BLEND AGAIN WITH THE 12Z
GFS RUN TO LEAN TOWARDS THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL TREND.

ZONAL FLOW KEEPS THE DEEP SOUTH UNDER THE GUN FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE EXTENDED. THIS IN TURN KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK FOR A MIXTURE OF PRECIP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
MAIN EVENT FOR THE EXTENDED NOW APPEARS TO FALL ON THURSDAY. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO REFLECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING COLDER AIR BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ044-KYZ050-KYZ051-KYZ052-KYZ058-KYZ059-KYZ060-KYZ068-KYZ069-
KYZ079-KYZ080-KYZ083-KYZ084-KYZ085-KYZ086-KYZ104-KYZ106-KYZ107-
KYZ108-KYZ109-KYZ110-KYZ111-KYZ112-KYZ113-KYZ114-KYZ115-KYZ116-
KYZ117-KYZ119-KYZ120.

HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ087-KYZ088-KYZ118.
&&

HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
442 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106-191245-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY
442 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083>086-107>117-119-120-191245-
ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-
LESLIE-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...
LONDON...MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...
HYDEN...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
442 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SNOW TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT LINGERING SNOW THIS EVENING WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

KYZ087-088-118-191245-
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG
442 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SNOW TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 4 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS OF 2000 FEET
AND ABOVE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT LINGERING SNOW THIS EVENING
WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

DUSTY