Heavy Snow in Kentucky, February 11 to 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)

WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS MELTED MUCH OF
THE SNOW THAT HAD FALLEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. FINAL DEFORMATION BAND IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AS CAA IS
POOLING IN AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
DOWNGRADED ALL WARNINGS AT THIS POINT...BUT KEPT AN ADVISORY
GOING...AS TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AT ALL
PLACES...AND UPSLOPE ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...WITH AS MUCH AS 3 IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE
VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
UPSLOPE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT...BEFORE HEIGHT RECOVERIES ENSUE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY SNOW
COVER THAT REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WILL BE MELTED AWAY BY
MID-WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ENGAGE...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 50S.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF WORK WEEK. DETAILS HOWEVER...REMAIN
VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
A FAR REACHING ARCTIC BLAST FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HAVE USED A
ECMWF/ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND...WHICH IS SLOWER AND NOT AS INTRUSIVE WITH
THE COLD AIR. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHEARED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1257 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

UPDATED DURING THE LATE MORNING TO UPGRADE 3 COUNTIES TO A HEAVY
SNOW WARNING. WE HAD REPORTS OF 3 INCHES IN LEE...WOLFE...AND MORGAN
COUNTIES...WITH A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW OVER THE AREA AT THE TIME.
EXPECTED TO SEE REPORTS OF 4 INCHES THERE AFTER THE BAND MOVED
OUT...BUT WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ALLOWED
COMPACTION AND MELTING TO OCCUR...AND HAVE NOT RECEIVED 4 INCH
REPORTS IN THOSE AREAS. THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR OTHER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT REPORTS INDICATE
THAT ITS BEEN TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE
CONTEMPLATING WHAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS TO CONTINUE IN THE NEW
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...LEANING TOWARD TRIMMING THINGS BACK.

611 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO ONGOING WINTER STORM CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AL. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL AND LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL.
REPORTS OF SNOWFALL RECEIVED SO FAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 1 INCH IN MOST
AREAS...1.5 INCHES IN FLEMINGSBURG. INITIAL SLUG OF PRECIP WANED
AFTER 6Z...BUT AS COUPLE JET STRUCTURE MOVED INTO THE REGION...SE TO
NE ORIENTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED. FURTHER TO THE N
AND W A DEFORMATION BAND HAS DEVELOPED FROM N OF BNA TO THE HTS
VICINITY. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN SEVERAL
PLACES HAVE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES EVEN IN THESE BANDS.
LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE SFC HAS ADVECTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING DOWN INTO THE MO VALLEY
REGION.

WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED LIMITING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BACK OFF A COUPLE OF INCHES FROM EARLIER
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...EXPECTED BANDED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING...WITH DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AND LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN MORE NORTHERLY TO NW LATER IN THE DAY ENHANCING
LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. INSTABILITY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF LK MI SHOULD PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO WITH HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS. AS FOR
AMOUNTS...CUT BACK TO 2 TO 4 ALONG AND N OF I 64...THOUGH PROGRESS
OF DEFORMATION BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH IN THIS AREA. IF IT LINGERS
AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
BETWEEN I 64 AND NORTH OF A MONTICELLO TO BEATTYVILLE TO SANDY HOOK
LINE...ABOUT 3 TO 5 STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THIS LINE
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 9 ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE HAL
RODGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ABOVE 2500. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE KEY TODAY IS THAT MUCH MORE RISE IN TEMPS
WOULD FURTHER LIMIT AMOUNTS AND AMOUNTS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER. DEPENDING
ON THESE...AMOUNTS LIGHTER THAN FORECAST COULD RESULT. KEPT PREVIOUS
GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

UPSLOPE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF VORTS IN NW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. KEPT MOST POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...BUT RAISED TO LIKELY
FOR THIS OVER THE VA BORDER COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CONTINUE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.

1053 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS POINTED NORTHEAST
TO EASTERN TENNESSEE. ON SATELLITE...THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW ARE BUILDING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY AND PREPARING TO COME
EAST. ON RADAR...A LARGE BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. THIS IS MIXING WITH SNOW NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOMERSET
TO JACKSON. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO
FREEZING...BETWEEN 33 AND 34 DEGREES. CALLS TO THE COUNTIES INDICATE
THAT ANY ACCUMULATION UP TO NOW HAS BEEN MINIMAL. AT THE OFFICE JUST
A THIN LAYER HAS BEEN ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE SNOW BOARD AND ROOFS
OF CARS. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EASE DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING
LOW DEEPENS AND APPROACHES...CHANGING THE LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A
BIT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND A SLIGHT
NUDGE TO THE 00Z NAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF JUST SNOW AND ANY
MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS FOR AN EXTRA COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS EVENT WILL BE ONE KNOWN MORE FOR A PROLONGED DURATION
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATHER THAN ANY PERIODS OF REAL HEAVY
SNOWFALL. HAVE PRESERVED THE SNOW TOTALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
THE GRIDS AND TEXT ZONE PRODUCT...EXPECTING THEM TO BE MET CLOSER
TOWARD DAWN. THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
STILL LOOK GOOD...BUT THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THE SNOW NEEDS TO BE
EMPHASIZED RATHER THAN FOCUS PUT EXCLUSIVELY ON ANY SPECIFIC
FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNT OR EXPECTATION OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW.
UPDATED GRIDS AND WEB GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN SENT AS HAVE A NEW SET OF
ZONES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-KYZ050-
KYZ051-KYZ052-KYZ058-KYZ059-KYZ060-KYZ068-KYZ069-KYZ079-KYZ083-
KYZ104.

SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ088-KYZ118-KYZ120.

SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ080-KYZ084-KYZ085-
KYZ086-KYZ087-KYZ106-KYZ107-KYZ108-KYZ109-KYZ110-KYZ111-KYZ112-
KYZ113-KYZ114-KYZ115-KYZ116-KYZ117-KYZ119.

&&

GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
516 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-121200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-WAYNE-ELLIOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...SANDY HOOK
516 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS INTO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING BEHIND AN EXITING STORM SYSTEM. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

KYZ088-118-120-121200-
HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARLAN...WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
516 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS INTO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING BEHIND AN EXITING STORM SYSTEM. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

KYZ080-084>087-106>117-119-121200-
LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-
FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...
HYDEN...INEZ
516 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS INTO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING BEHIND AN EXITING STORM SYSTEM. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.