Damaging Wind in Kansas, September 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
349 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
WIND MACHINE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY...

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY...THEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THE RESULTING TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT OR ABOVE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PARTS OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS LESSENING IN THE RUSSELL AND
GREAT BEND AREAS LATE...AS SURFACE LOW NEARS THIS AREA. DESPITE
STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. THE DEVELOPMENTAL DRY SLOT IS STILL
FORECAST TO SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY.
THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
THE FLINT HILLS. HOWEVER MODEL SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS WILL
BECOME SATURATED NEAR 850MB LEVEL...WITH STRATOCU CEILINGS LIKELY
LIMITING SURFACE HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...THE STRONG
FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TODAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR
THE SUPER-IMPOSED CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE SOME OF THE MOMENTUM
DOWNWARD FROM THE 50-60KT SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A BIT OF THIS ON A LIMITED SCALE
WITH CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNNG. SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IF A BIT
MORE SURFACE HEATING RESULTS...WHICH COULD INCREASE 0-3KM CAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THIS EVENING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FRIDAY...AS SURFACE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AWAITING NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING/RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. SOME MODIFICATION TO GOING TEMPERATURES AND POPS
WITH TREND TO COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  55  80  57 /  80  40  10  30
HUTCHINSON      74  53  77  55 /  80  30  10  40
NEWTON          73  54  79  56 /  80  40  10  40
ELDORADO        74  56  81  58 /  80  50  10  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  57  82  59 /  80  50  20  30
RUSSELL         70  51  72  50 /  80  40  10  50
GREAT BEND      72  51  74  52 /  80  30  10  40
SALINA          73  54  76  54 /  80  40  10  50
MCPHERSON       73  53  77  55 /  80  40  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     75  59  84  61 /  80  70  20  50
CHANUTE         73  57  82  59 /  80  70  20  50
IOLA            73  57  81  59 /  80  70  20  50
PARSONS-KPPF    74  58  83  60 /  80  70  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-221045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
435 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND PERHAPS EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...IF
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
INITIATION. CHECK LATER OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
FRIDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED