Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE LATEST WV LOOP HAS THIS FEATURE STARTING
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
FIRED ALONG A BOUNDARY IN NW KS, ALTHOUGH WEAK WINDS HAVE KEPT
THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LATEST SHORT FUSE COMPOSITE HAS CAPE OF
1200-1500 J/KG IN EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS, WITH THE 0-2.5 KM
LAPSE RATES ABOVE 9 C/KM NEAR GLD. SOME TOWERING CU STARTING TO
DEVELOP WEST OF KSPD, NEAR THE WEAK DRYLINE AND EDGE OF THE CAP.
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY AROUND 50, AND SHEAR IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH THE DECENT COLD POOL COMING OUT AND WITH
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING A BIT OF SUN, INSTABILITIES SHOULD GET
FAIRLY DECENT. THINK THAT STORMS FIRING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN
WILL MOVE INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
RATHER MARGINAL, BUT SOME HAIL REPORTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT TONIGHT, AND
EVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND DDC WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND ALL
DAY SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, SO KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW, THE SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS,
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE IS SOME DECENT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD
POSSIBLY GET GOING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAINLY EAST OF DDC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND LOW TO MID 50S,
BUT LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AND HAIL AGAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE MAINLY IN OUR
EAST WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE. THE GOING GRIDS REFLECTED THIS
WELL AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.

BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA. THE NAM HAS
STORMS REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME
THINK THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH, SO CONTINUED WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
WEST AND 850MB TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S C.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE WEST, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE A TAD
BIT COOLER WITH MORE MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND
IN THE MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH THE
FRONT COMING DOWN, AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 70 WITH UPSLOPE WINDS. IF THERE IS MORE CLOUDS THAN
EXPECTED HIGHS COULD BE EVEN COOLER, BUT WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE ON
IT FOR NOW.

DAYS 3-7...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 144
HOURS. BEYOND THAT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
MINORS IN THE FLOW AND REALLY HAVE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF FAITH IN ANY
OF THEIR SOLUTIONS. STILL PREFER THE GFS FOR NOW AS IT BUCKLES THE
CROSS PACIFIC UPPER JET MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. I EXPECT THIS TO
VERIFY BASED ON OLR HOVMOLLERS FROM THE CDC WEBSITE THAT SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF PERSISTENT TROPICAL CONVECTION NEAR THE EQUATOR AND ABOUT
160E SUPPORTING A BIT HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAN THAT SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF. OF COURSE ANYTHING OF HIGHER RESOLUTION IN THE TIME FRAME
OF NEXT WEEKEND WILL FALL WITHIN THE NOISE SIGNAL OF THE MODEL.
OVERALL DIDNT CHANGE MUCH IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  80  52  71 /  50  20  20   0
GCK  52  81  50  70 /  40  10  10   0
EHA  52  82  50  73 /  40  10  10  20
LBL  53  81  51  73 /  40  10  10   0
HYS  53  79  51  69 /  50  20  30   0
P28  55  78  56  75 /  50  30  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN26/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK   ....CORRECTED SPOTTERS INFO STATEMENT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-081100-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
113 PM CDT (1213 PM MDT) SUN MAY 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BY 100 PM CDT (1200 PM MDT) DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS EAST
COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM. THE LOW LEVEL AIR IN THIS AREA IS FAIRLY HUMID SO INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
REACHING VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 72 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEGREES
WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG A DEVELOPING DRY LINE IN FAR EAST
COLORADO THAT WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. INITIAL
STORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS.

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
KANSAS COLORADO BORDER...A FEW OF THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING.

JOHNSON