Damaging Wind in Kansas, May 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE EXTENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY
AND TEMPERATURES...THEN HOW LONG TO LINGER PRECIP TONIGHT.  LATER
CONCERNS ARE WITH SHORTWAVES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

PROFILERS SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...LATEST WATER
VAPOR SHOWING MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA INTO WYOMING WITH HINT OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES OVER COLORADO INTO WYOMING.  AT THE
SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE PAST FEW MORNING HAS BEEN EASILY
FOUND WITH DEWPOINT AND WIND SHIFT DISCONTINUITIES...A LITTLE HARDER
TO FIND THIS MORNING GIVEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EVENING
CONVECTION.  BOUNDARY APPEARS TO RUN FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT OVER THE CWA WITH NEW ACTIVITY FIRING WESTERN KANSAS.  THIS
SPREAD EAST BUT HAS WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHED THE CWA.  MODELS
SHOWING LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN
PAST MORNINGS.  SCENARIO FOR THE DAY IT TO HAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO RIDE EAST PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA SO KEPT POPS HIGHEST THERE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCE.  DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES HAD 2 TO
3 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
TODAY SO WENT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT
A LITTLE WARMER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.  HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

FOR TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS HOWEVER MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND
MODELS GENERATING SOME LIFT AHEAD OF FEATURE THUS KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.
NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPS...LOWS FROM AROUND 60
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

ON THURSDAY...HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS TAIL OF NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA SWEEPS BY AND AFTERNOON HEATING/LAPSE RATES
ADD TO INSTABILITY.  COOLER H850 TEMPS BUT EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR
EARLY PART OF DAY...HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH FEATURE.
NAM GENERATING QPF ACROSS CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE.  KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND WILL SEE HOW LATER MODEL
RUNS HANDLE TRENDS/CONSISTENCY.  OTHERWISE LEFT LATER PERIODS AS IS.
BEYOND THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSS...IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPS
RISING FROM THE LOWER 90S MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
619 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
HIAWATHA TO ABILENE LINE DURING THE DAY AND ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE...HOWEVER THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED GROUNDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...INTO
LYON... COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES. A FEW STREAMS AND CREEKS IN
THIS AREA ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL. ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA COULD LEAD TO SOME OF THESE STREAMS AND
CREEKS LEAVING THEIR BANKS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR WATER
OVER ROADWAYS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PF

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
204 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

KSZ011-023-311945-
NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-
204 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THROUGH 245 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEMAHA AND NORTHEAST POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ONAGA AND
HAVENSVILLE.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.