Hail in Colorado, May 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
243 PM MDT TUE MAY 30 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

...SVR CONVECTION MAIN CONCERN REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...LLVL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
ADJACENT S MTNS OF SE COLORADO. DEWPTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN
THE 40S AND 50S. EVEN LA VETA PASS HAS EASTERLY WINDS AND A 30F
DEWPT. MORNING SOUNDING AND CURRENT PROFILERS INDICATE MODERATE
WESTELRY FLOW ALOFT...SO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMGY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NW WY WITH AN
ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM THIS MID LVL VORTICIE.
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OVER THE MTNS.

REST OF TODAY...WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND THE MSTR QUITE
DEEP...AND WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR OVER THE REGION...ANTICIPATE A FEW
SVR ROTATING STORMS OVER THE FA TODAY. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SHOT AT
SVR WITH THE BEST SHOT DOWN ACROSS THE RATON MESA REGION ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF ROTATING
STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CONCERN I HAVE IS THAT IT
MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET CONVECTION GOING...BUT GIVEN SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT AND CONTINUED INSOLATION...WE SHOULD REALIZE SUFFICIENT
CAPE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING. I ANTICIPATE A WEATHER WATCH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODELS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. I
AM NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS BUT DECIDED TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING OUT
ON THE FAR E PLAINS AFTER 06Z. IN THE MEANTIME...WE SHOULD SEE ANY
CONVECTION MOVING GENERALLY TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IN PLACE. LATER TONIGHT WE MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION FIRES OF THE FAR
E PLAINS/W KS THIS EVENING.

TOMORROW...NW FLOW AT MID LVLS DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE FROM WY. THERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT LLVL MSTR ON THE E PLAINS TOMORROW. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER (ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR S SXNS OF THE SE PLAINS)...BUT
STILL WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. WITH NW
FLOW...STORMS WILL HAVE MORE A S MOTION TO THEM...SO WE MAY SEE A
BIT MORE OF A THREAT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. SPC HAS NEARLY ALL OF THE E
PLAINS IN A 15% PROB OF SVR FOR TOMORROW. IN THE INTERIOR MTNS
TOMORROW...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM. WINDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DIURNAL SO METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR SHOULD NOT OCCUR.

.AVIATION...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE SOME LOW CIGS ACROSS THE E PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY DECKS AROUND 2-3KFT BETWEEN 10-14Z.

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

LONG TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOW WED NIGHT
TRANSISTIONS TO WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS LATE WED AFTERNOON
MAY HELP INITATE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
WITH 35+KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING
CAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AVAILABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THURSDAY...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STORMS O
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS...WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...THOUGH WITH DECREASING WINDS UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE...CONVECTION TO BE LESS ORGANIZED. BY FRIDAY...WARMING ALOFT
AND ERODING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY LINE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BEGINS TO LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT MAINLY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES WILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH H7 TEMPS BETWEEN +14C AND +18C...SHOULD WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS RETURN THE REGION. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED DIUNRAL POPS ACROSS THE
MTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST GFS INDICATING SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES POSSIBLY SENDING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK....THOUGH WILL
KEEP CURRENT HOT AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ATTM. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

28/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
947 AM MDT TUE MAY 30 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-311400-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
947 AM MDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST FACE SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH OVER THE PLAINS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 TO 70 MPH...HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE
PLAINS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EAST INTO KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW
AT 30 TO 40 MPH AT MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ROTATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT AREAS ARE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WINDS GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM...FROM THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR TO
THE KANSAS BORDER.

HODANISH