Tornado and Hail in Kansas, May 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT THE UPPER LOW
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WAS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FARTHER WEST, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT IN THE ANALYSIS AND ON THE IMAGERY WAS OVER
ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE, OBS AND LAMP DATA SHOW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH
FROM THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA AT 19Z, ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE CWA AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE FAIRLY
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH SUPPORT THE INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS THAT THE NAM DEPICTS. WOULD EXPECT A HIGH THREAT FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH SOME HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS. AFTER SUNSET, THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND IMPINGE ON A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW-ESE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HAVE
RAISED POPS INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, THE CONVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD
BE IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS BY MAX HEATING. LEE SIDE TROUGH ALSO
DEVELOPS WITH A DRYLINE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG
THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE DOESNT LOOK ALL
THAT STRONG. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO ISOLATED POPS
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA WHICH LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY ON FRIDAY AS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. SOME OF THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE
PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS BUT WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS FOR NOW.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE STORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS KANSAS. POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED
FOR LATE TUE TO 30%. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WET DAY,
BUT WITH A FRONT IN THE AREA, AND FAVORABLE LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY,
STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY GOOD. MAXES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO
THE UPPER 80S AS THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  94  68  97 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  63  96  64 100 /  30  10  10   0
EHA  63  97  63  97 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  64  97  66  97 /  30  10  10   0
HYS  64  95  68  98 /  30  20  20   0
P28  68  94  70  95 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN02/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
102 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
102 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006 /327 AM MDT THU MAY 25 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 5 PM THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNEY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
AROUND ELKHART EARLY ON, AND THEN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHEAST AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 3 PM MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
SCOTT CITY TO JETMORE TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AND WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A DRYLINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE AREAS THAT MIGHT BE
AFFECTED AND THE SEVERITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND
LINE.

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
727 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

KSZ063-260115-
FINNEY-
727 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FINNEY COUNTY...

AT 721 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLCOMB...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN FINNEY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HOLCOMB AND
GARDEN CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3801 10111 3783 10109 3785 10067 3800 10067
      3802 10034 3824 10048

JOHNSON