Hail in Kansas, March 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
238 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS
TODAY AND STRONG WINDS/EXTREME FIRE DANGER AREAWIDE TODAY.

TODAY:
CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST CO WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
OK. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AS IT REACHES
KANSAS CITY AREA BY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS OUT OF
SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET
ISOLATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS WITH 850 THETA-E
ADVECTION UNDERWAY BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. OTHERWISE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
TRAILING NORTH TO SOUTH DRYLINE THROUGH THE FLINT HILLS. SBCAPE OF
AROUND 2,000 J/KG WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DRYLINE MIXES SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KS BY 00Z...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS (5 TO 9 MB/6
HR) IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF ENTERING WESTERN KS MAY
ALLOW ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO TO INITIATE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS MID-LATE PM...BEFORE STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST INTO WESTERN MO. THUS WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POP THERE WITH
MENTION OF SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WE THINK SIGNIFICANT SEVERE MORE
LIKELY TO OUR EAST AS STORMS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESIDENT TIME IN
SOUTHEAST KS TO MATURE (STORM MOTION VECTOR 250/45 KT).
MEANWHILE...DRY ADIABATIC SURFACE TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES BEHIND
DRYLINE AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWNWARD
TOWARD SURFACE VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER. PLANNING TO EXPAND WIND
ADVISORY INTO FLINT HILLS. MOST CONFIDENT ON REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS/FLINT HILLS AS OPPOSED TO
CENTRAL KS. FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME RESULTING FROM THE STRONG
WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND 15 TO 30% RH.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
NOT MUCH IN WAY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND POSITIVELY-TILTED
DEPARTING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF. THEREFORE...ONLY ANTICIPATING A
PERIOD OF LOWER-MIDDLE CLOUDS IN MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION. COOLER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO BUILD
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY MEANINGFUL GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
SHUNTED TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE CONTINUING DRY FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WAVE SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY MIX OF
COOLER PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER TROF SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER TROF AND THE GFS HINTS THAT GULF MAY TRY TO OPEN UP LATE IN
THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

CARUSO

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  37  53  27 /  10  10   5   5
HUTCHINSON      71  36  51  26 /  10  10  10   5
NEWTON          73  37  51  26 /  10  10  10   5
ELDORADO        76  38  52  26 /  20  10  10   5
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  39  55  27 /  10  10   5   0
RUSSELL         67  31  49  23 /  10  10  10   5
GREAT BEND      67  33  50  24 /  10  10  10   5
SALINA          68  34  49  24 /  20  10  10   5
MCPHERSON       70  35  50  25 /  10  10  10   5
COFFEYVILLE     81  42  56  26 /  30  10   5   0
CHANUTE         80  41  52  25 /  30  10  10   0
IOLA            79  41  51  25 /  30  20  10   5
PARSONS-KPPF    80  41  54  26 /  30  10   5   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-121200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
415 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY. PLEASE THE
LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A YATES CENTER TO SEDAN LINE. THIS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DRYLINE MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS
REGARDING DETAILS AND ANY CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CARUSO/BOWMAN