Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 15, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT THU JUN 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING WITH 100+ KT JET
BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING LATE TODAY/TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
SUPPORT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING REMAIN VERY WARM WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS/MIXING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RELAX AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND STALL ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS-
COLORADO BORDER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVEL AFTER 18Z AND PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100...WHILE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS ALONG THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD ALONG DEVELOPING DRY-LINE.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES/LCLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
HIGH...0-3KM LAPSE RATES/LOW LEVEL CAPE AND A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
NON-MESOCYCLONE TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS BOUNDARY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA AND LLJ
INCREASES. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA
COUNTIES.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS H5 TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL END UP...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW/LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON SATURDAY WITH GFS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/NAM...THEREFORE RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.

.FIRE WX...
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES
OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS BISECTING YUMA COUNTY/WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY AND
CONTINUING TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S ALLOWING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-
     KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-
     KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ092.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ253-COZ254.

&&

MCGUIRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT THU JUN 15 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161700-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006 /1045 AM MDT THU JUN 15 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT STALLED BETWEEN CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO AND STRATTON
NEBRASKA MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
ALLOWING THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO REACH THE EXTREME
CATEGORY.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER MEANS THAT FIRES START QUICKLY...SPREAD
FURIOUSLY AND BURN INTENSELY. ALL FIRES ARE POTENTIALLY SERIOUS.
ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN AREAS WITH EXTREME FIRE
DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT THU JUN 15 2006

KSZ014-152045-
THOMAS-
311 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 6 MILES SOUTH OF
LEVANT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLBY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

KILLINGSWORTH