Hail in Kansas, June 1, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ONGOING CONVECTION. DIFFUSE BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PREVAILED. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. LINGERING STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DYING OUT / PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S UNDER IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK UP IN THE MID 80S WITH FULL
SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A WAA PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND
CENTRAL NEB. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT DENOTED ON THE 310K
SFC...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THUS THE POPS
CONTINUE AT 20 PERCENT. THE WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT TO THE
EAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
OF FORCING...IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. HAVE SPREAD THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SINCE THE WAA PATTERN LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLED MIN TEMPS OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS A LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED UP MINS
FOR SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO NAIL
DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS AND POSSIBILITIES FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD
KEEP A DIRTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD INDICATE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ANY GIVEN DAY.
RATHER THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH IN TACT. LEFT PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BRINGS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THINK
THAT THIS COULD IMPEDE THE BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS SOUTH. WILL WATCH
LATER RUNS TO SEE IF MODELS TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. OTHERWISE THERE
IS NO CLEAR SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PRECLUDING
THE ADDITION OF POPS FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST...HAVE CONTINUED WITH AN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMP FORECAST WITH UPPER 80 AND LOWER 90 FOR HIGHS.
THIS MAY VARY A COUPLE DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON WHETHER
THERE IS ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SMITH/WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
119 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021830-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
119 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME LOCALES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
135 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

KSZ020-021-034-011930-
CLAY-CLOUD-OTTAWA-
135 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

THROUGH 230 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 10 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CLOUD...CLAY AND OTTAWA COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE AURORA...MILTONVALE AND OAK HILL.

PF