Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND WAS PICKED UP BY
THE GRANADA PROFILER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA IN AREA OF 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MCS MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA ACROSS THE CWA AND FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SURFACE TO 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY JUICED UP WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH CAPES AROUND 4K
J/KG ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO FORM INTO AN MCS AND PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...PER CORFIDI VECTORS...WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE IN THE ZONES AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE MCS...SO TIMING WILL BE THE KEY AND WILL SHIFT NOT AS FAST AS
THE NAM BUT A MIX BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM FRIDAY
MORNINGS FORECAST. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 100 IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND IN THE MID 90S IN THE EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS KS AND NE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATING 850 TEMPS INTO THE 23-25C RANGE WITH
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT. WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOIST GROUND
FROM TONIGHT PRECIP...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S...WITH NEAR 100 WESTERN CWA...OR EVEN COOLER IF RAIN
TONIGHT IS HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD. DEWPOINTS ALSO WILL NOT BE
AS HIGH WESTERN CWA AS TODAY. EITHER WAY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES STILL
LOOK GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST 850 WIND
COMPONENT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EASTERN CWA MONDAY WITH 101-103 WESTERN CWA. THE MAIN
CORE OF THE HEAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY
ON INTO THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 96 TO 101 RANGE
(WARMEST AGAIN OVER THE WEST) WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNTIL THURSDAY.
WITH MAIN TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...WILL KEEP FCST DRY AS WELL.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
413 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-142115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
413 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
526 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

KSZ008-132315-
REPUBLIC-
526 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

THROUGH 615 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE...STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE REPUBLIC...SCANDIA...MUNDEN...NARKA...BELLEVILLE
AND CUBA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.