Ice Storm in Kansas, December 30 to 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
921 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.UPDATE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH OAX...HAVE DECIDED ITS PRUDENT
TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS ADJACENT AND EAST OF
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME SPOTS EAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DONT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH IF AT ALL OVERNIGHT. DEBATED ON HOW FAR
EAST TO GO...AND WITH THE KJYR OBSERVATION AT 32F THINK ITS BEST
TO COVER THAT AREA TOO. UPDATED GRIDS...AND STATEMENTS TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

UPDATE...HAVE SENT OUT UPDATES THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
REPORTS RECEVIED ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE
SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE FAR WEST...PRIMARLY ACROSS WESTERN DAWSON
COUNTY. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN COZAD AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW IN GOTHENBURG...WITH MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL LIKELY. THE NEXT ADJUSTMENT WAS TO START THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IMMEDIATELY WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING...AND SOME ACCIDENTS REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN
ORDER TO DETERMINE IF AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY WILL BE
NECESSARY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF FREEZING IN
SEVERAL SPOTS...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY
MOVE A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES.

OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FROM TOP TO BOTTOM IS STRENGTHENING AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. COLD AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING
STEADY AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. RADAR
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OVER KANSAS AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW TURNING INTO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 283. WARMER AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A
FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
PUNCH BACK TO THE EAST BEGINNING SOMETIME TOMORROW MORNING.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW
WILL ALSO MAKE AN EASTWARD PUSH TONIGHT. FREEZING PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AREA BUT
KEARNEY CAN EXPECT TO SEE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN NEBRASKA AND ALONG
HIGHWAY 183 IN KANSAS.

FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY IN WRAPPING WARMER
AIR NORTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CONSEQUENTLY BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN BACK OVER TO RAIN FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY
AREA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALOFT BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE HELPING PRECIPITATION CHANGE FROM A SNOW
AND SLEET MIX BACK TO FREEZING RAIN.

THE WHOLE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW THE COLDER AIR TO WORK FURTHER INTO OUR CWA.  PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TURN OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN AREAS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  DRIER AIR WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM BY THE
TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH FOR MAKING SNOW.  THE GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AREA MAY STILL
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON SUNDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
THERE SHOULD BE SNOW IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
THE EASTERN PART SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE LOW IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY IT
WILL BE A GRADUAL ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BY THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS COLD ENOUGH THAT THERE
SHOULD BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.

MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH THE COLDER AIR THAT IS
IN PLACE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE UNTIL THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER IS
DETERMINED. WITH NEW SNOW...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE
TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY BOTTOM OUT...BUT SINCE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
IS IN QUESTION FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WENT A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

TOWARD MID WEEK WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE SNOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT SHOULD START
TO MODERATE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ041-048-
     049-062>064-075-076-084-085.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ039-040-
     046-047-061-073-074-083.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ060-072-082.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082-083.

KS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ006-017.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ005.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1023 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1023 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR DETAILS ON THIS WINTER STORM VISIT OUR
WEBSITE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AND SLEET TOTALS DUE TO
THE WINTER STORM.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
737 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     SNOW             ELWOOD                  40.59N 99.86W
12/29/2006  E2.0 INCH        GOSPER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SLEET OCCURRING AT TIME OF REPORT AND ROADS VERY SLICK.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
739 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     SNOW             CAMBRIDGE               40.28N 100.17W
12/29/2006  E2.0 INCH        FURNAS             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
927 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             OVERTON                 40.74N 99.54W
12/29/2006  E4.0 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
930 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     SNOW             LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
12/29/2006  E3.0 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0925 PM     SNOW             COZAD                   40.86N 99.99W
12/29/2006  E6.0 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY ESTIMATED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN COZAD.

&&

CARMEL