Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ATTM...AS SEEN AS FINE LINE ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWN TO OTTAWA
COUNTIES. STORMS FIRING QUICKLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL
KS...MOVING NE IN THE MEAN FLOW. UPPER WAVE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH NEBRASKA. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM HAS KICKED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS.

CIN HAS ALL BUT GONE FROM THE AREA AT THIS HOUR.  CAPE RUNNING
GENERALLY 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA...AND 0-6KM SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO 35-50KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. STORM MOTION IS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED
INTO THE 70S ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHILE COLUMN PWS INCREASE BY
MIDNIGHT TO NEARLY 2.5 INCHES.  RESULT IS THAT MAIN THREATS ARE WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NEAR 3 INCHES
MOST AREAS...BUT IF MUCH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME COULD CERTAINLY
SEE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS STORMS DEVELOP.

WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOME
EAST CENTRAL AREAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED
AS EVENING PROGRESSES...DEPENDING ON HOW LINE DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW AS POPS EXIT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE.
AT THIS TIME...APPEARS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SO HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THURSDAY EVENING...AND
CONTINUED A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS AS NAM TRIES TO HANG ON TO PRECIP TOO LONG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY AND
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE INCREASED HIGHS THROUGH THE
MID 90S MOST AREAS SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL JET SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE WENT DRY WITH THE FCST ON THROUGH WED NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN FORCING AND BOUNDARIES REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 90S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
424 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
56. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS REPEATEDLY AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

KSZ020-034-022115-
CLOUD-OTTAWA-
321 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THROUGH 415 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE
HAIL WITH WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
TESCOTT...ADA...MINNEAPOLIS...GLASCO...MILTONVALE...DELPHOS AND
BENNINGTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

KSZ034-022130-
OTTAWA-
350 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THROUGH 430 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS WERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE TESCOTT
ADA...BENNINGTON...MINNEAPOLIS AND DELPHOS.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS WAS TRAILING THIS AREA ACROSS
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
426 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

KSZ020-021-022215-
CLAY-CLOUD-
426 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THROUGH 515 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS WERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE GLASCO...LONGFORD...OAK
HILL...MILTONVALE...VINING...IDANA...MORGANVILLE...AURORA...GREEN...
WAKEFIELD AND CLAY CENTER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.