Heat in Kansas, August 1, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AND EAST TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NM. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NE INTO
NORTHEAST CO.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC 5H
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE THE LEE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL TX NORTH ACROSS KS LATER TONIGHT.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MINOR 5H TROUGH OVER NM MAY
GET LIFTED NORTHEAST AROUND THE 5H RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS...PROVIDING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT LATER
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MID AND
LATE MORNING HOURS AS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS AS THE
RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING. TUESDAY SHOULD BE BREEZY AND VERY WARM
DAY. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KS. 850MB DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 16 DEG C ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES  TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. THEREFORE...WELL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 700
PM TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NE AND WESTERN KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY EVENING. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CASE THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES A BIT FASTER TO
THE SOUTHEAST THAN FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. /66

CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ARE WARM ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT TO THE NORTH.  MODELS THIS RUN SHOWING A
LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY IN SPITTING OUT SOME QPF FOR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND PREVIOUS SHIFT INTRODUCED SOME POPS THIS
PERIOD AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND...SHIFTING A TAD BIT FURTHER EAST
WITH BETTER CHANCE NORTH CENTRAL...40 PERCENT WHILE KEEPING AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF TURNPIKE DRY.  LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WERE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN MORE CONSENSUS ON MODELS
IN PUSHING FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND SLIDING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE UPPED MORE INTO THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE...FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES APPEARING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 RANGE
ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION IN HWO.
WOULD GO HIGHS ON POPS BUT SOME CONCERN THAT MODELS HAVE MAIN UPPER
ENERGY SUPPORT LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 COULD SEE
SOME HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH TEMPS AND MIXING OF DEWPOINTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
EXTEND HEAT ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW NEW MODEL
TRENDS GO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS A REAL CHALLENGE WITH FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES...RAN FROM UPPER 80S NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO UPPER 90S FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CWA.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIDDLE 60S FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THURSDAY...FRONT/CLOUDS TO FINALLY PROVIDE HEAT RELIEF ACROSS
THE CWA.  WITH BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND HINTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY...KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AROUND...LINGERING
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.  BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE H850 MB
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 18 TO 22C RANGE BY 00Z FRIDAY...AND AGAIN TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WENT WITH HIGHS MIDDLE
80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH.

FOR THE FRIDAY INTO MONDAY PERIOD...KEPT FORECAST DRY AT THIS
POINT.  GFS STILL WANTING TO BRING A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SPITTING OUT SOME QPF ACROSS THE CWA. ECMWF NOT EVEN HINTING OF THIS
FEATURE...SO DISCOUNTING GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHTS IN THE 592 TO 594 RANGE...H850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 22 TO 24 RANGE.  HAVE GONE DRY WITH HAVE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY MID 90S ON SUNDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY.

PF

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058>059.

&&

66/39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1102 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-020415-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1102 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF AN ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO HIAWATHA LINE. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF UP TO
110 DEGREES.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS ARE LIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TURNPIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL HOWEVER...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.