Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 1, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
605 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RUC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS WITH CAPES OF 1200-1600 J/KG.
0-1 KM HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO 100-200 M2/S2. RUC AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE...BEST POTENTIAL FOR A DISCRETE
SUPERCELL APPEARS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND TO
NEWTON TO ARKANSAS CITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

CARUSO

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../311 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006/

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A DRY-LINE. WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP
WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH KBVO TOWARDS KWLD. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH VERY CLOSELY AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE
ENHANCED...THUS INCREASING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS THAT
ENCOUNTER IT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A ORGANIZED LINE WHICH WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SUN-MON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW
MOVING OVER IDAHO WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ON
SUNDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE COULD SPARK
OFF SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME OF OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THE PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS TOMORROW...AS STEEP
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES SUGGEST MIXING AT A PREMIUM ALONG WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE LOW. WE WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT
EVALUATE THIS FURTHER. COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THUS
MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY.

TUES
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING THE REGION...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR
SO FROM MONDAYS HIGHS. MODELS STILL LATCHING ON TO A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEST
850-700MB THETA E ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS IMPULSE
SUPPORTS OUR GOING CHANCES OF PRECIP. COULD SEE CHANCES BOOSTED BY
LATER SHIFTS IF SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT.

EXTENDED: WED-SAT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER. OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
MEANWHILE...STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO
SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN VERTICAL STACKING OF THE SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM
FILLS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE CONFLUENT FLOW...SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  78  45  65 /  80  20   5   0
HUTCHINSON      56  75  44  65 /  80  20   5   0
NEWTON          57  76  45  64 /  80  20   5   0
ELDORADO        59  78  45  64 /  80  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  80  46  66 /  80  20   5   0
RUSSELL         52  72  41  65 /  90  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  73  41  65 /  90  10   0   0
SALINA          56  72  42  64 /  80  20   5   0
MCPHERSON       56  74  43  64 /  80  20   5   0
COFFEYVILLE     61  82  47  65 /  60  40  10   0
CHANUTE         61  79  46  63 /  70  40  20   0
IOLA            61  78  45  63 /  70  40  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    61  81  47  64 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1213 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021915-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1213 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS VERY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TODAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS WITH A
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR
ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND OUTLOOK AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

KSZ047-020000-
BARTON-
533 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON COUNTY...

AT 530 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAWNEE ROCK...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RADIUM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZED HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

HOWERTON