Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, April 1, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 PM MST SAT APR 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SUN...WITH
MAIN EMPHASIS PLACED ON SVR POTENTIAL TNT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE S/WV TROF PUSHING INTO
WRN CO AND NM. CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING IN ERN CO AND WRN KS IN RESPONSE
TO THIS S/WV TROF WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO SRN KS. FURTHER
SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S/LWR 60S WL CONTINUE
TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE FM SRN KS
EXTENDING TO THE WRN PRTNS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE. EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CWA AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN PRTN OF THE CWA.

SFC LOW WL PUSH INTO WRN IA SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
MIXING AND COMBINED CAA AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...GUSTY NW WINDS CAN
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES ATTM SINCE FORECASTED WIND GUSTS ARE
RIGHT ON THE BORDER OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ACTIVE UPPR AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVR
THE ROCKIES MON WHILE A PAC LOW APPROACHES THE W COAST. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING AND TIMING WITH THE H5
HTS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. WEAK S/WV TROF AND SFC
LOW TO PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...ALTHOUGH BEST LLVL MOISTURE
AND UPPER LVL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS
PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRW. PAC LOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS
PROGGED BY THE GFS TO INTENSIFY AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HANGS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR THIS
SCENARIO WITH DRY SLOTTING OVR WRN KS WED BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WL SUPPLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRW THUR.

REMAINDER OF EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE SO NO CHANGES WERE
WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

CLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MST SAT APR 1 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1135 AM CST SAT APR 1 2006 /1035 AM MST SAT APR 1 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AFTER
4 PM MST (5 PM CST) MAINLY EAST OF THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 4 PM MST (5 PM CST). ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH SO ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEOTI TO OAKLEY AND OBERLIN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH SUNSET.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM MST (5 PM CST) EAST
OF COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER.

DDT