Hail in Iowa, May 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MCS THAT FIRED OVER THE PLAINS LAST NIGHT GENERATED A NICE MCV.
THIS MCV CAUSED A NEW MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION NOW IS WHAT
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS FINALLY DISCOVERED
THE VORT MAX OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE 12Z RUNS BUT INDICATE IT NOT
DOING MUCH. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CELLULAR CU OVER IOWA THAT
DOES NOT LOOK REAL HEALTHY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. RADAR HAS
SOME SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO
BE MINIMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS ON WHAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEY DO AGREE ON A DEEP CUT OFF UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER OR VERY NEAR THE AREA. 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/ETA REV UP
THE SURFACE LOW BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NEAR PERFECT PHASING. NGM
IS MUCH WEAKER BUT HAS A LOW CLUSTERED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. GFS
LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH. NOT
SURE IF I BELIEVE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW (980-990 DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL) BUT A LOCATION SOMEWHERE NEAR KBEH LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT. SYSTEM
TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND MEANDER AROUND SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DEPARTING. NET RESULT IS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH SOME THREAT OF RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH SILENT 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND IT. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
PERIOD WITH A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
349 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
349 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH LIFT
OR MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL FORM IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE...AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LE