Hail and Damaging Wind in Iowa, June 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
IOWA.  CURRENT THINKING IS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND A WEAK FRONT HANGING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL POP SOME CU AND WE COULD SEE ISOLATED NON SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER BUT ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES TO BETTER BLEND
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  LASTLY...BUFR SOUNDINGS SURE INDICATE A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH 3900 CAPE AND -10 LIS.  FOR TONIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE WAA DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME THETA-E RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE CWA.  THIS WARRANTS CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT WITH STORMS DYING AFTER SUNRISE.  I LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCES SUNDAY  PRIMARILY DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND TODAY... UA ANALYSIS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE COMING UP THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND COLD AIR
BROUGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE...THE CAP SHOULD BREAK MONDAY AFTERNOON
THUS GIVING WAY TO SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.  GFS IS
SHOWING THE BEST SHEAR AND CAPE IN QUITE A WHILE.  IT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND WIND TO BE A
CONSIDERATION.  WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.  THE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING PERIOD LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY DRY...I THINK.  I HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM LATER TUESDAY BASED
ON THE QUICKER ONSET/MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
SLATED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...ABOUT A THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME.  I HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THIS TIME FRAME
AS A RESULT.  SURFACE LOW STRETCHES A WARM FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI AND OVER RUNNING AND THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST
LATE THURSDAY.  STORM INITIATION EXPECTED OVER THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AT NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-041045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
325 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
UNTIL MID EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-35 ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THEN APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JUNGBLUTH