Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, September 27, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AT 18Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER
MI INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THEN SOUTHWEST IL. SCT SHRA WERE
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA /FA/. UPPER
TROF REMAINED WELL WEST OF THE FA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEAR TERM. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARISE BY SATURDAY AS NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
LOW TO THE N. OTHER MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAKER SOLUTION...AND
NAM HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS LATELY. WILL THUS
GO CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE /IN THE MID
50S/...WITH CURRENT HEATING AND FORCING FROM FRONT STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. BY 00Z BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE. WILL TAPER TO SMALL CHANCE POPS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NW FA. OVERNIGHT UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST
SO EXPECT CHANCE OF SHRA TO CONTINUE. WILL ONLY KEEP THUNDER
MENTION IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
PERSIST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR THE MAV NUMBERS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S
SE.

ON THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA. DECENT FORCING
AS NOTED IN QVECTOR PLOTS WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE SOUTHWEST
FA AS UPPER TROF EXITS AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND THE COLD ADVECTION...FEEL MAV/MET HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
TOO WARM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA WHERE THERE MIGHT BE SOME SUN...MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE OK.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE THE
CLOUDS. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA. ANY PRECIP WOULD HAVE TO MOISTEN UP THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE ADDED
POPS TO THE NW FA BUT KEPT THEM IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

NEXT FRONT MOVES ACROSS ON SATURDAY SO CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT IN BRINGING YET
ANOTHER FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE ADDED POPS THERE TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

KIND-88D SHOWING AN AREA OF MOSTLY MODERATE RWS ACRS NRN IN AND
CNTRL IL ASSCOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE DROPPING SE WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NE. IMPULSE TO MOV THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE CD FNT FM JUST W OF ORD TO STL AT 15Z IS EXPECTED
TO REACH LAF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IND AND BMG EARLY THIS EVE.
MEANWHILE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE S OF THIS AREA OF RWS WL
ALLOW THE ATMS TO DESTABILIZE WITH CAPES TO 1000 J/KG JUST PRIOR TO
FROPA. IN ADDITION...MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF MORE IMPULSES ACRS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFT AND EVE WHICH SHOULD HELP SPARK TRW ACTIVITY. WL
WAIT TIL THE LAST MINUTE TO SEE IF WE CAN NAIL DOWN THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE...MODEL TIMES SECS AND PLAN VIEWS SHOW AND END TO THE DEEP
LIFT BY 04Z NEAR LAF TO 09Z NEAR BMG. WL END RWS. ALSO...TIME SECS
SHOW INCREASING MOIST IN THE BNDRY LYR OVERNGT. NGM MOS HAS IFR CIGS
OVERNGT. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS ACRS IA AND WI...WL GO WITH MVFR CIGS
OVERNGT AND CONTINUING THU MRNG. GUSTY SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW
AND DCRSG AFTER FROPA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...CS
AVIATION...KOCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-280800-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
245 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006 /345 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF A KOKOMO TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT EDT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A VINCENNES
TO WINCHESTER LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)