Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 18, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED WX PTN XPCTD ACRS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS ONE SYS...CURRENTLY NR THE MS RVR...PASSES THRU
THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYS IN THE NRN STREAM WL DROP SEWD THRU
THE GRTLKS ON MON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL. FCST FOCUS
CENTERS ON POPS.

IN THE NR TERM...CONVECTION CURRENTLY DVLPG AHEAD OF UPPR LVL SYS NR
THE MS RVR. SYS AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS XPCTD TO PASS THRU
THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TIL ABOUT
190600Z...THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC POPS AFT THAT. WS507 IN EFFECT TIL
190100Z FOR PARTS OF THE SRN CWA.

IN THE LTR PDS...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DIG SEWD INTO THE AREA
MON AFT/EVEN. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE QUITE HIGH AND MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP AS WELL. WL GO WITH CHC POPS ON MON/MON EVEN AS A
RESULT. MODEL TRENDS HV BEEN SLOWING DOWN CDFNT...AND NOW SOME OF
THE MODELS HINT THAT FNT MAY END UP STALLING OUT ACRS THE AREA. DUE
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WL BE ADDING CHC POPS FOR TUES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

LO LVL THICKNESSES AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST NGM MOS MAY BE TOO COOL
WITH THE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LTR PDS. WL BUMP THE GUIDANCE UP
A FEW DEGS AT THOSE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...AXIS OF CLOUDS AND SCT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z OR SO. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT LAF UNTIL THE INITIAL RAIN SHIELD MOVES
NORTH OF ALL SITES. IN A NUTSHELL, LOOK FOR PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND
VIS CONDS UNTIL A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS IL AND
MOVE ENE AFTER 21Z. THIS SECOND AND MORE INTENSE AREA OF CONVECTION
SHOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z TONIGHT.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES WITH ANY STORMS. OVERALL, THE
PREVIOUS FCST AND TIMING LOOK GOOD THIS THE WINDOW OF BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHCS.  AFTER 06Z, EXPECT MORE MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A HUMID AIRMASS.  THERE IS SOME
HINT THAT CIGS MAY RISE TO VFR CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z
MON...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AVIATION...CO
PUBLIC...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
520 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190915-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
420 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006 /520 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)