Hail and Damaging Wind in Indiana, January 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...SEVERE WX THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...

UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND SEVERE WORDING IN
FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VERY
UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. STORMS WILL REACH BOWLING
GREEN BEFORE 1 PM CST...LOUISVILLE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM EST AND
LEXINGTON AFTER 4 PM EST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.

LATE MORNING UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADJUST TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND WILL BE MOVING INTO LMK FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
17Z AND 18Z. LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH STRONG
WARMING AHEAD OF THE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR AT
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE.  AIR HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH
SURFACE BASED LIS --6 TO -8 AHEAD OF THE LINE. EXPECT LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE EAST REACHING
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR MID AFTERNOON AND INTERSTATE 75 LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TO TIMING
ON GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.

REST OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SCHOLZ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EARLY AM UPDATE...
BULK OF THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PCPN HAS EXITED THE FCST AREA AS
OF 11 UTC. STILL SOME RESIDUAL -TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. WILL LOWER POPS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY.

BASED ON MSAS LIFTED INDEX FIELDS...INSTABILITY OVER THE SWRN 1/2 OF
THE CWA HAS BECOME SFC BASED...THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE RATHER WEAK.
BEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS CLOSER TO N-S ORIENTED TROF AXIS FROM ERN
MO INTO ARKANSAS. CLUSTER OF SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC STORMS
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE STL AREA CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW AND AT THE
NOSE OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. INSTABILITY AXIS AND SFC TROF STILL
FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTN. SVR STORMS STILL A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AREA WIDE THIS AFTN (SEE PREV DISC)...BUT BASED ON WHATS
HAPPENED NEAR STL...AM CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR ISLTD TORNADO
NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACK...AS IT HEADS EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN INDIANA
BY 21/00 UTC. HOWEVER THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL SOMEWHAT BY
THEN...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO LESSEN...PERHAPS
DIMINISHING TORNADO POTENTIAL THERE. SOMETHING WELL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

SINCE WELL SEE A PERIOD OF LITTLE/NO PCPN TODAY...AND SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR FCST HIGHS IN SRN KY...WILL INCREASE
MAX TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS...INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE KY/TN LINE.
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
COUNTER MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION. CS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...

PRONOUNCED UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE CWA EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING.
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING SLOWER THAN MODEL DATA INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO.
CLUSTERS OF TSRA HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE VICINITY AS OF 07
UTC. THIS ACTIVITY IN ASSOC WITH THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
LLJ...WHICH IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE LMK CWA BETWEEN NOW
AND 12 UTC. SO WE EXPECT THE THREAT FOR TSRA TO ALSO CONTINUE
EASTWARD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ORGANIZED CONVECTION A GOOD
POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THINKING THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE ELEVATED HAILERS THROUGH 12 UTC. ALSO...AS EVIDENCED
EARLIER ON PAH RADAR...STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD TO
THE SW GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS...SO SOME SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. WELCOME TO JANUARY

BULK OF THIS PCPN SHOULD MOVE N/E OF THE LMK CWA AFTER 12-15 UTC OR
SO THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE CWA. BY 18-21
UTC...SFC LOW FCST TO MOVE INTO IL/IN BORDER REGION...WITH TROF AXIS
STRETCHING DOWN INTO MIDDLE TN. ALONG THIS AXIS...MODEST SFC BASED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO FORM...THEREFORE WE THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSRA SHOULD COMMENCE. WITH DRY SLOT ALOFT...THIS COULD PROMOTE COLD
POOL GENERATION WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
ISLTD TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CWA...WHERE 1KM
HELICITIES FCST TO BE RATHER HIGH THIS AFTN.

THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD VACATE THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 00 AND
03 UTC THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT COULD EXIT QUICKER AS MODELS
SOMETIMES UNDERESTIMATE ORGANIZED STORM VELOCITIES. BOTH GFS/NAM MOS
INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH POPS CONTINUING AFTER 00 UTC. I BELIEVE THIS IS
CENTERED AROUND A SECONDARY TROF/FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO THE CWA
TONIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FCST OF
SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT.

NAM BUFKIT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS BY 12 UTC TUESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NEAR RECORD VALUES LIKELY TODAY ASSUMING WE
GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERLIES COULD ALSO GET A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. CS

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD END DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...NORTH WINDS
AND REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN MUCH
OF THE DAY. THE AIR BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT COLD AT ALL...SO
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LIKELY. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY...WENT WITH COOLER ETA OVER THE GFS. FEEL THAT GFS FAILS TO
RESOLVE COOLER AIR AT LOW LEVELS IN THE FACE OF NORTH WINDS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL LESSEN. LOW CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FARTHER NORTH AND WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN
TODAYS SYSTEM. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS WHILE A DEEP FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. ON THURSDAY...A
STRENGTHING NORTH/SOUTH UPPER JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WILL DIG SOUTH AND BRING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH SUCH A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...CLOUDINESS WILL BE PERSISTENT AND WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.   JSD

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
640 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY.

THEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND A FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THESE STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS WOULD BE
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROUGHLY NOON AND 3 PM
EST...AND APPROACHING THE I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM EST.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS SHOULD PERIODICALLY CHECK THE FORECAST FOR UPDATED DETAILS.
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE OR LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR INFORMATION. USE OUR E-SPOTTER SYSTEM ON OUR
WEBSITE TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

CS