Hail and Heavy Rain in Indiana, January 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP AND TEMPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AT 07Z CENTER OF THE SFC LOW WAS NEAR KNOB NOSTER MO AND TSRA WERE
DEVELOPING INVOF THE LOW.  THE GFS/NAM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
OF THE SFC LOW AND THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN SURROUNDING WFOS AND HPC IS
TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR TODAYS FORECAST.

SCT TSRA ALREADY OCCURING IN THE CWA AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
RISING SINCE THE START OF MY SHIFT AT 11PM.  LOW CENTER WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO NEAR KIND BY LATER TONIGHT.  STRONG WARMING
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS TO NEAR RECORD TEMPS (AT
INDY THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 63 SET IN 2004).  STRONG UVVS AND
SURFACE BASED LIS AROUND -2 WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR TSRA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVE EAST MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDER MOVES WITH IT.  BY
LATER THIS EVENING THE AXIS OF BELOW ZERO LIS AND STRONG LIFT ARE
CONFINED MAILY TO THE EASTERN CWA.  THAT SAID HAVE REDUCED POPS AND
TSRA MENTION GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HAVE GONE WITH WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY COMES TO AN END
ON WED AS ANOTHER CALIFORNIA NATIVE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE.  THE H5 TROF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG/DEEP AS THE ONE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA.  CHANCE POPS ARE STLL WARRENTED...ALTHOUGH
TREND HAS BEEN WEAKER...WITH RAIN AT ONSET CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS
PRECIP ENDS.  ON THURS A SECONDARY TROF SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA
MARKING THE END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN THE PAST WEEK.  THIS
TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN H5 HIGH OVER THE
BAJA STRENGTHENS.  WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM HANGING AROUND AT LEAST
UNTIL FRIDAY HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN UNTIL THEN.  FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS STAY
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
850 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-031100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
850 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY EXCEED
SEVERE LEVELS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
ABOUT 1100 AM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 1100 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

JAS