Damaging Winds in Indiana, August 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
700 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZONES...
250 PM CDT

ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH THE EDGE OF DENSE CI
RETREATING NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  THIS IS ALLOWING EVEN GREATER
INSOLATION ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.  LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING SB CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND LI OF -7 TO -9.  HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...SO CNVTV DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BASED ON LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...GOING WITH THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT WAS THE
WAY TO GO...BUT IT IS EVEN SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED ON LAST NIGHTS
NAM/WRF RUN.  THE 12Z NAM/WRF IS STILL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...SO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM.
THE NAM/WRF IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE SFC FNT WILL MOVE INTO NWRN
IL BY AROUND 00Z AND REACHING NWRN INDIANA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...TIMING
IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX.  WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING INTO SHORT LINES AND BOW ECHOES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ECHO TRAINING.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING LONG TERM
FORECAST.  FOR THE LOCAL AREA...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NCEP MANUAL
GUIDANCE.  THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT AT THIS TIME RANGE FOR THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.

THE MAIN IDEA TO NOTE IS THAT FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TONIGHT...THE REGION SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY AND
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAFS.
BROKEN LINE OF TS EXTENDS FROM UGN TO DKB. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS NE IL AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WHICH IT IS FIRING ON. TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THIS LINE BUT
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S. MAIN FRONT STILL EXTENDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL WI BACK INTO NE IA. A SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS MO AND
CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. WITH AN EXTENSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AND MAY BE ENHANCED
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AT ORD/MDW/GYY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
MVFR CIGS WITH COOLER NE FLOW IN VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. CIGS MAYBE
AS LOW AS IFR ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY THURS MORNING. WSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
NW THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT NORTH BEHIND FROPA...STAYING NE OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
715 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-030930-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
715 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS TO RENSSELAER
INDIANA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>745-766-030930-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
715 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AS NORTH WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

RATZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
810 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             3 S UTICA               41.30N 89.01W
08/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL LASTED FOR 3 MINUTES AT MATTHIESSEN STATE
            PARK. WINDS ESTIMATED 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
841 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N MINOOKA             41.49N 88.26W
08/02/2006  E60 MPH          KENDALL            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED TO 60 MPH ON RIDGE ROAD IN SOUTHEAST
            KENDALL COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
938 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MATTESON                41.51N 87.74W
08/02/2006                   COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIX TO EIGHT INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AT 216TH
            AND GOVERNORS HIGHWAY. WINDS ESTIMATED 60 MPH.

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKFORT               41.50N 87.84W
08/02/2006                   WILL               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN AT ROUTE 30 AND WOLF ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MATTESON                41.51N 87.74W
08/02/2006                   COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EIGHT TO TEN TREES BLOWN DOWN ON 216TH STREET BLOCKING
            THE ROAD. POWER LINES ALSO BLOWN DOWN.

&&