Tornado in Indiana, August 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CDFNT HAD MVD ACROSS
KLAF/KHUF/KIND SITES. TSRA AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS MUCH OF WCTRL INDIANA.
PLAN ON KEEPING VCTS AT KBMG THROUGH 02Z AS CDFNT HAS YET TO PASS
STATION. A FEW TSRAS WERE STILL NORTHWEST OF KBMG AS WELL. ONCE
CDFNT CROSSES ENTIRE AREA...MOISTURE WL BE SLOW TO EXIT REGION
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS KHUF/KBMG). MVFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP ACROSS
KIND/KLAF AS LIGHT FOG WL BLANKET THE REGION. ACROSS
KHUF/KBMG...MOISTURE WL REMAIN FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME. THIS WL LEAD
TO AREAS OF THICKER FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR
BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z AND CONT THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN TO
SITES AFTER 14Z WITH ONLY A FEW CU EXPECTED.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND ENDING
THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD.

SYNOPSIS...AT 3 PM MONDAY...A SEASONABLY STRONG S/W OVER THE UPPER
GRT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSOCIATED
WITH THE S/W IS A SE MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM
NORTHWEST OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE OF THE REGION AND BEHIND IT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM (DAY 1)...

PRECIP SHOULD BE END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN SMALL INSTABILITY
AND MARGINAL SHEAR PRESENT IN THE REGION.  EXPECTING PRECIP TO END
IN THE INDY METRO SOMETIME IN 8PM-11PM TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIP
ENDING EARLIER IN AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LATER IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FA.

LONG TERM (DAY 2 - DAY 7)...

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.  NCEP ENSEMBLES/MEAN...12 UTC NCEP OPERATIONAL RUNS...AND
ECMWF DEPICTING MOSTLY ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY
PERIOD BEFORE APPROACHING WAVE FROM NORTHWEST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
MIDWEST IN DAYS 5 AND 6.  AFTER PASSAGE OF NEXT WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST SIGNALING NEAR AVERAGE
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.  CURRENT THINKING HAS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.  LATEST MODEL TRENDS DEPICTING THIS
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY RATHER THAN SUNDAY SO FORECAST
CHANGED AS A RESULT.  EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN.
NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN ANOMALY 850 TEMPS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE THE CASE.
IN SUMMARY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD SUGGESTS LITTLE
OR NO DEVIATION FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...SMITH/SALLY
AVIATION...JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-151415-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
908 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 /1008 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SALLY