Hail in Indiana, April 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
150 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. WL USE BLEND.

MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA THIS TIME AROUND WL BE TIMING OF PRECIP ENDING
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH
AT 18Z INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  17Z CAPES
HAVE INCREASED TO 2500 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE REMAINING
CIN.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXITING BY 03Z.  INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPS WL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
AFT FROPA. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. WL USE BLEND.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...
SATURDAY WL START A NICE STREAK WHEN IT COMES TO QUITE WX. HIGH
PRESSURE WL SLIDE INTO FA DURING THE DAY. TIME SECTIONS SHOWING LOW
CLOUDINESS BREAKING UP BY EARLY TO MID MORNING AS PLENTY OF DOWNWARD
MOTION MVS INTO CWA. CAA QUICKLY FOLLOWS AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
ACROSS FA. H85 WINDS COME OUT OF THE N/NE AT 20-25KT WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND -6C ACROSS NRN FA BY 18Z. LATE AFTERNOON SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EVEN WITH
FALLING H85 TEMPS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON OVRALL TEMPS.
WL USE BLEND.

TIME SECTIONS CONT TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CTRL
INDIANA SAT NGT. THIS WL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CAA CONTS
BUT STARTS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTS TO LOOK
REASONABLE. WL USE BLEND.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO DOMINATE WX FOR START OF WEEK. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY EARLY TO MID
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TUE NGT INTO WED NGT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JO
SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-081100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006 /1150 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 2
PM EDT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SQUALL LINE THAT DEVELOPS
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADOES SOUTH OF A TERRE HAUTE TO
SHELBYVILLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION...LOWLAND RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE...EAST FORK OF THE WHITE...AND THE EEL RIVERS IN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
200 PM EDT...100 PM CDT TO AROUND 800 PM EDT...700 PM CDT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

JAS/OGREN