Flash Flooding and Hail in Indiana, April 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006

.AVIATION...
QUIET WX THIS EVENING WILL PREVAIL WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LWR MI ALONG WITH DRY/STABLE NE SFC FLOW. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 06Z AND
10Z INCREASING LIFT NORTHEAST OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY IMPACT THE
HUF AND BMG SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY E/NE FLOW AT THE SFC
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL AREAS. BEST COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME WHEN THE STRONGEST 850MB JET
TARGETS SW INDIANA...WITH DECREASING PRECIP AND CIGS THEREAFTER. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR TSTRM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WEDS
AFTER 21Z HOWEVER CHCS APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AS THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT CONSISTENT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. WILL USE A BLEND FOR BIG PICTURE...BUT NOT
FOLLOW ANY SPECIFIC MODEL FOR DETAILS.

TONIGHT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA /FA/. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FA BY
12Z...AND WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE RAIN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MAKING IT EAST. THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FA AND TAPER QUICKLY OFF TO NO POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK OK WITH WARMEST READINGS UNDER
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FA.

SURFACE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH OF FA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WEAK OCCLUDED
FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH LIFT AS
UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH UPPER LOW STILL WELL OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. NAM SHOWING SOME CAPE...SO ALONG WITH WEAK FRONT STILL
SEE A NEED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
SOME AS SURFACE LOW EXITS...SO MAV/MET TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S LOOK GOOD.

NOT MUCH CHANGES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
A STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY AND THUS BRINGS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FA THEN.

WEEKEND CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS POSITION OF SURFACE
LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING IS A TOUGH CALL. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST TO
AVOID FLIP FLOP BUT SATURDAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ADDITION
OF RAIN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-191000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1045 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006 /1145 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF A LAFAYETTE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO GREENSBURG LINE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)