Damaging Winds in Idaho, June 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
846 AM MDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THE ONCOMING SHORT WAVE WILL
NOT BE OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
SCALED BACK PRECIPITATION WORDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DISPLAYS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS PWS OF OVER AN INCH OVER THE CONSENSUS IS THIS IS THE
INSTABILITY IS EXAGGERATED. IF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 341 AM MDT FRI JUN 2 2006)

SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS IS ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS FROM THE CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS TO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT. HOW MANY THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE IS
IN QUESTION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT CONDITIONS FROM
BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE. THE BEST HEATING WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE
CLEARWATERS MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO ACROSS TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHERN
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS TO NEAR BUTTE. THUS MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN THIS REGION...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...THE SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON STATE. THE MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
DISTURBANCE TRACKS. THE FARTHER SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. AS IT APPEARS AT THE
MOMENT...THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
MISSOULA. AFTER SUNDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE REGARDING THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS DEVELOP AN UNSEASONABLY
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST WILL THE RIDGE BUILD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRIEFLY BUILDING THE
RIDGE INTO MONTANA FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL STRONGLY BUILDS THE RIDGE INTO MONTANA
RESULTING IN HOTTER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE
HOTTER RIDGE IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FOR INCREASING CONVECTION. AS THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE COOLER GFS EARLY IN
THE WEEK...WILL GO FOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF WARMER
CONDITIONS...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...STEGEMILLER
PREV DISCUSSION...PETRESCU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1035 AM MDT FRI JUN 2 2006

IDZ005>008-030400-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
935 AM PDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN AND THE BLACKERBY BURN
AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOWS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
SUNDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ004>006-043-030400-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
1035 AM MDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN A COMBINATION OF
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
MONTANA SUNDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

IDZ009-010-MTZ007-030400-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
1035 AM MDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND LEMHI COUNTY SUNDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.