Wildfire in Hawaii, January 3 to 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST TUE JAN 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY
DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL
BE FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
MAUKA SECTIONS. BY THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN TO TRADES BUT
REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG CATEGORY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM - TONITE THRU THURSDAY...
FRONT PASSING OVER OAHU AS I TYPE...ALTHOUGH IT IS FALLING APART
AND BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. RADARS DO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A NARROW ROPE CLOUD BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE ALREADY WESTERLY THERE ISNT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS WITH FRONT MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND TO THE BIG ISLAND TOMORROW. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE TWO THINGS...MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS COMING IN AND INCREASING WINDS. CURRENT OBS FROM
HALEAKALA AND MAUNA KEA INDICATE SOME STRONG WINDS UP HIGHER.
LOOKS LIKE THIS IS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
ALTHOUGH I HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT TIL MIDNITE...CHANCES ARE THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BEFORE THAT. HOWEVER WINDS ON THE MOUNTAINS WILL
PROBABLY STRENGTHEN AGAIN TOMORROW...AND HAVE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS IN GRIDS AND FORECAST. STAY TUNED.

DOWN AT THE SURFACE THINK THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL GUSTINESS
WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS.
HIGHEST RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS AVAILABLE...UH MM5 AND NCEP RSM...
INDICATE THAT WEST SIDES OF KAUAI...OAHU AND BIG ISLAND MAY SEE
SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. HAVE BASED FORECAST WIND GRIDS ON THOSE
MODELS OUTPUT. IN PARTICULAR HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN FOR SOME STRONG
WINDS TOMORROW ON THE KONA AND KOHALA COASTS. GET SOME FLAKEY
THINGS SOMETIMES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE STATE. I RECALL
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS LAST YEAR ON THE WAIANAE SIDE WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY VALLEY ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY WILL BE
SUCCEPTIBLE TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. BOTTOM LINE...STAY TUNED JUST IN
CASE THE WINDS GET STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

MODELS ALL SHOW A DRY STABLE AIRMASS COMING IN...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. SHOULD HAVE A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 6K FT WHICH
SHOULD CAP ANY SHOWERS MOVING IN ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. TAKE
A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND RH FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUI
AND BIG ISLAND UP ABOVE THE INVERSION. DEFINATELY LIP CRACKING
DRY WITH RH VALUES FCST TO BE WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT. AS WE GO INTO
THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE CAUSING WINDS
TO VEER TO NORTHEAST...BRINGING IN MORE TYPICAL TRADE CONDITIONS.
STILL STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE.

.LONG TERM - FRIDAY ONWARD...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE SO NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE LONG STRETCH OF TRADE WINDS WILL BRING
WINDWARD AREAS SOME RELIEF FROM OUR DRY WEATHER BUT TRADE SHOWERS
WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO WINDWARD AREAS BUT LEEWARD AREAS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY. THE STRONG TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TRAILING WEST
FROM THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LOW WHICH PASSED BY RAPIDLY NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH WHLE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING HAS SENT A SWELL OUR WAY COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRONG WINDS AROUND A LOW FARTHER OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST HAS
PRODUCED A SWELL MIX WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SURF RISING TO OR JUST
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
THOSE WHO WANT TO TRY TO SURF...THE PERIODS WILL BE SHORTER THAN
NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE FETCH AREAS AND WE WILL BE
HAVING SOME BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS.

NOT GOING TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE
A SCA WILL BE NEEDED TOMORROW FOR THE LARGE SWELLS. IF WINDS ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED THEN A SCA FOR WINDS MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED. ALSO WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE HARBOR SURGES FOR
KAHULUI AND HILO. LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUTE THIS THREAT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR
NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG
ISLAND.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND HALEAKALA
SUMMITS.

SHORT TERM: NASH
LONG TERM: DONALDSON