High Surf in Hawaii, February 27 to 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON FEB 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
FEWER SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE.
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE ISLANDS...MARKED BY A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL EDGE CLOSER TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS WILL FEED WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE CONVERGENCE
AREA...LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK...RETURNING MORE SETTLED
TRADE WIND WEATHER TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AUTOMATED GAGES AND RADAR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE
TRADE WINDS HAVE DECLINED ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS IMPACTED THE HILO SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES INFER A SLIGHT AND OVERALL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IN
THESE SHOWERS...THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE MORE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSEVERE TONIGHT...REMAINING
FOCUSED ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS.

THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT LOOMED OVER THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD APPEAR THIN ON
SATELLITE. IN RESPONSE...HAVE TONED DOWN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT
ADJUST THE MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TONIGHT.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE ACCURATELY FORECAST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INCONSISTENCY
AMONGST MODELS HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BAND TOWARD MID WEEK. THE BAND...FUELED BY WARM AND MOIST AIR
FEEDING INTO CONVERGENT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AT ITS CLOSEST
POINT. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONCERNING THE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE BAND TOWARD AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SO THE MAIN
FORECAST DECISION IS NOT IF THE BAND WILL DEVELOP...AS
ITS ALREADY THERE...BUT RATHER HOW FAR EASTWARD IT WILL MOVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BELIEVE THE ONGOING FORECAST OF INCREASING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
STATE...AND THE RECENT ADDITION OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS...REPRESENTS A
GOOD COMPROMISE.

THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING LIGHT TRADES TO FILL IN AS A RESULT
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL THURSDAY AS REMNANT MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE BUOYS OFF WAIMEA BAY AND KAILUA ON OAHU TAB THE INCOMING
NORTHEAST SWELL AT 9 TO 11 FEET WITH A 10 SECOND PERIOD. THE SWELL
HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND WILL REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY STARTING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES ALONG WITH A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HARBOR SURGES AT HILO AND KAHULUI.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS FOR MOST
HAWAIIAN WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-MOLOKAI-MAUI-BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL HAWAII COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY AND MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.
&&

TANABE