High Surf in Hawaii, August 1 to 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE AUG 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE AREA...WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRYER TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF HAWAII WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ONE MORE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL STEER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU...
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. AN INTENSE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST...JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...IN
ADDITION TO INDUCING THE SURFACE TROUGH...HAS ERASED THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHICH LIMITS THE HEIGHT AND THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS. THE LOW HAS ALSO PROVIDED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUS
STEEPENING THE TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATE AND DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE.

AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS HAS SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHT. INTERMIXED WITH THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THEREBY REDUCING IF NOT ELIMINATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BECAUSE OF THIS...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BIG ISLAND ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO SET UP SEA
BREEZES AND LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS.

COME WEDNESDAY...THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST...NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THE RIDGE WILL DRY US OUT AND BRING BACK MODERATE TRADE
WINDS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

CRAIG