Damaging Wind in Georgia, September 1, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
INLAND SE GA. STORMS ARE STRONGEST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
IS MERGING WITH THE OUTFLOW...ACROSS WAYNE AND BRANTLEY COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL IMPULSES ARE ADVANCING FROM THE SW OUT AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO ENHANCE THE STORMS. THE STORMS ACROSS WAYNE
AND BRANTLEY HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT BOTH THE BOUNDARIES AND THE
STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVE.

HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PCT ACROSS INLAND SE GA UNTIL
AROUND 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE... POPS
WILL BE KEPT AT 20 TO 30 PCT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. POPS
EVERYWHERE WILL BE DROPPED AFTER 06Z.

WILL SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME SPOTS ACROSS INLAND SE GA FROM THIS EVENINGS PCP.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY SE 10 KNOTS AT GRAYS REEF...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KNOTS BOTH AT THE ST AUGUSTINE PIER
AND THE BUOY OFFSHORE ST AUGUSTINE. THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE WINDS AND HAVE INCREASED THEM TO A SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS OFF THE
NE FL COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND VEER TO TO THE SW AFTER 06Z.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/MFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY SETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRECLUDE
DENSE FOG...THUS WILL CAP VISIBILITIES AT 2 NM.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PP/SEC/PK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
521 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-021000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
521 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO OCALA. STRONG WINDS AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ARE
THE MAIN THREATS.

ELSEWHERE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
756 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

GAZ136-151-152-020045-
BRANTLEY-PIERCE-WAYNE-
756 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
BRANTLEY...PIERCE AND WAYNE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 756 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HORTENSE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS AROUND SCREVEN...HORTENSE...BROADHURST...GARDI AND
MOUNT PLEASANT THROUGH 845 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CARROLL