Damaging Wind in Georgia, May 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTION IS TAKING ITS
OWN SWEET TIME TO DEVELOP...BUT EXPECT INITIATION TO TAKE PLACE BY
19Z AS THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS IS
WORKED OUT OF THE REGION. WHAT IS SOMEWHAT TROUBLING IS THE MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OUR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THIS MOVES EAST.
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE
TO DECIDE IF LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ANYWHERE...PROBABLY EAST OF
THE MTNS...BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET AT LEAST A CHANCE THROUGH
THE EVENING. BEYOND THAT...WILL CUT BACK OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.
THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TRIGGER SOME DEEP CONVECTION...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE CARRIED THERE. DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR HIGHEST YET THIS SEASON...90 OR
ABOVE IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT QUITE READY TO GO AS HIGH AS THE MET
GUIDANCE THOUGH.

THE STRNGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A DRY AND PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL TAKES UP RESISDENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS THE OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM UNDER
THE RIDGE ALOFT...TEMPERED SLIGHLY BE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
COMPONENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE KEY FEATURE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE STRONG EAST COAST UPPER
RIDGE THAT PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...THEN BEGINS BREAKING DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...REACHING THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. A DRY AND PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND SMALL POPS WILL BE SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WARRANTING CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE...THEN COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS LIMITED WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDES FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN SHORT TERM TAF CONCERN IS CONVECTION. AT 17Z...SOME LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION HAD YET TO BE OVERCOME WHILE A LARGE PATCH OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD POP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT ANY TAF SITE TO INCLUDE MORE THAN JUST A VCSH AND CB CLOUD
GROUP. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER SHOULD BRING GUSTY SW WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL
THIN AFTER SUNSET AGAIN AS THE MAIN VORT LOBE MOVES EAST. KAVL HAS
THE BEST CHANCE AT MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL OTHER SITES WILL BE
KEPT VFR FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE CHANGED DEPENDING ON WHICH SITES GET
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS VFR WITH DOWNSLOPE
KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS AT BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/PM
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-270945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
539 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY. PLEASE SEE
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-262100-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-EASTERN POLK-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GASTON-GRAHAM-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-
HABERSHAM-HART-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-IREDELL-LAURENS-LINCOLN-MACON-
MADISON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MECKLENBURG-MITCHELL-NORTHERN JACKSON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-RABUN-ROWAN-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-SWAIN-
TRANSYLVANIA-UNION-YANCEY-YORK-
1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS...
OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85...HAS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE SQUALL LINE THAT COULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IF A SQUALL
LINE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE FARTHER TO THE EAST. IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT AFTERNOON STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ062>064-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-262000-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER
PICKENS-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-LAURENS-MACON-OCONEE
MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-RABUN-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-TRANSYLVANIA-
258 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
NORTHERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM POWDERSVILLE TO
WESTMINSTER TO 12 MILES EAST OF YOUNG HARRIS...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
WALHALLA TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAYESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PIEDMONT BY 305 PM EDT.
  WESTMINSTER BY 310 PM EDT.
  LAKEMONT BY 315 PM EDT.
  WILLIAMSTON BY 320 PM EDT.
  TALLULAH FALLS BY 325 PM EDT.
  BATESVILLE BY 330 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THESE
AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL GROW STRONG QUICKLY AND A
FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

SCZ007>009-262030-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-YORK-
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECTING CHESNEE...AS WELL AS
CHEROKEE AND YORK COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAYO...OR 11 MILES WEST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF THICKETTY BY 345 PM EDT.
  GAFFNEY BY 350 PM EDT.
  BLACKSBURG BY 405 PM EDT.
  CLOVER BY 430 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

SCZ007>009-262030-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-YORK-
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHESNEE...AS WELL AS CHEROKEE
AND YORK COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAYO...OR 11 MILES WEST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF THICKETTY BY 345 PM EDT.
  GAFFNEY BY 350 PM EDT.
  BLACKSBURG BY 405 PM EDT.
  CLOVER BY 430 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44