Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
A BROAD/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHO A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...THE GREATER
THREAT REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES ARE POOLED. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...STALLING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH GA BY EARLY
MONDAY. SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AS
A MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE. ALTHO AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
POP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS DURING MAX
HEATING...EXPECT BEST CHANCES...ALTHO VERY ISOLATED AT BEST...TO BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WAYNESBORO LINE.
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER ANY SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG...WITH 45 MPH WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS (65-75) WHILE HIGHS REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S THRU THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE BERMUDA RIDGE NOSES BACK IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN A MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO
NOTED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WED-FRI...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALTHO MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME...ANY WEAK EASTERLY WAVE WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED. WE
CAN ONLY HOPE A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE
HEAT AND DRYNESS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING
IN OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION ON FRIDAY...AND THEREFORE...INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS AND HIGHS TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CLIMO THRU AT LEAST THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         72  94  73  95 /  20   5   5  10
ATHENS          71  96  70  98 /  20   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     72  93  72  94 /  20   5  10  10
ROME            70 100  69  99 /  20   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        75  97  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
MACON           73  98  72  98 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-170900-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
100 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO
SOUTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH...LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE BEST
LOCATION FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF LAGRANGE TO
AUGUSTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 AND LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. A
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING TO CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALLOWING SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK WINDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

GAZ095-107-161900-
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN NORTHERN PULASKI AND
SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PABST...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PABST...HAYNEVILLE...GROVANIA...AND PERRY.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT
BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS UP TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

19