Hail in Georgia, January 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...WILL INCLUDE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SAT FOR ALL ZONES...

.SYNOPSIS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SQUALL LINE 50 NM WIDE ASSOCD WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING 30-35 KT THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL GA EXTENDING SW
TO CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GOMEX. OVERALL LINE APPEARS TO
BE HOLDING STEADY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE
BROKEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW PRE-SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
CLOUDINESS MOVING EWD WHILE A SMALL DRY DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE. TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 70-75 DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. SB CAPES FROM LAPS INDICATE
AROUND 400-600 IN SE GA AND 600-1000 IN NE FL.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW BULK OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING
NWD NEXT 12 HRS BUT STILL STRONG INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TOR WATCH #18 IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD IF TRENDS AND
CONVECTION HOLD UP. THINK FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN ALMA-LIVE
OAK LINE BY 22-00Z AND WILL BE EXITING OUR SE ZONES AND MARINE AREA
BY 06Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LIMITED
CAPE ALOFT ON MODEL AND UPPER SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR
LARGE HAIL BUT WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. MODIFYING 18Z JAX YIELDS CAPE 900J/KG. SAT...A 990 MB LOW
WRAPS UP AROUND THE DELMARVA AREA AND SOME PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LIKELY SUPPORTING AT LEAST LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH AND TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AOB 3 KFT WILL IMPACT MAINLY NRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA SAT
BEFORE EXITING BY AFTN GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AS PWATS
DROP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE 50S. SAT NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH GIVING WAY TO
PART ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS LOWS DROP TO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S LIKELY OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA.
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WIND SPEEDS AND THE AREA TO PUT UP FREEZE WATCH. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL PROBABLY REACH CRITERIA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS
WELL. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE WARMER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
PAST VERIFICATION. SUN...WARM UP ENSURES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS
OVER FL. MON...HIGH PRES MOVES E OF FL WITH S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPING
AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SE CONUS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH A MID-UPPER
TROUGH FROM WRN GREAT LAKES TO TX TO START OFF EXTENDED FCST. MAIN
ENERGY LOOKS TO BE N OF THE AREA. SFC FRONT LOOKS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE THEREFORE ADDED POPS IN FOR WED NIGHT AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY VALUES ON LAST 2 GFS RUNS LOOK TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN THU AND FRI. BY LATE WEEK...HIGH
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA PER LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE WITH AN E TO SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...12Z MODELS BRING WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
OFFSHORE ZONES SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE AND SCA NEAR SHORE AND EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL RHS SAT AFTERNOON OVER NE
FL. WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGH DISPERSION WILL NEED ONLY ONE HOUR OF
<35 PERCENT RH SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH.  ON SUNDAY RHS WILL
DROP BELOW 35 OVER NE FL FOR 4-5 HOURS SO WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  50  31  60 /  60   5   0   0
SSI  44  54  34  58 /  70   5   0   0
JAX  44  55  30  58 /  60   5   0   0
SGJ  44  53  35  55 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  47  54  31  60 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  48  56  31  61 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1-5 PM SATURDAY.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1-5 PM SUNDAY.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE
     FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM...
     AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHASHY/ZIBURA

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