Damaging Wind in Florida, May 15, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CALCULATED WITH MORNING SOUNDING
DATA LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH AN
AFTERNOON LIFTED INDEX OF -11C...CAPE OVER 5000 J/KG...ELEVATED
DRY LAYER...RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT JUST SOME OF THE MORE PROMINENT
FEATURES THAT WILL SET US UP FOR SOME STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO RAMP UP
SEVERITY POTENTIAL JUST A TAD. MOS GUIDANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS
HIGH WITH 85-100 POPS TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO GIANT BULLSEYE OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. CURRENT FORECASTS OF 50 PERCENT EAST COAST DO
LOOK A BIT LOW...HOWEVER. WILL BUMP UP INTO LIKELY RANGE...AT
LEAST FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD GIVEN SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS A BIT WEST COAST
GIVEN THREAT OF APPROACHING SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST MARINE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

..ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...

DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ALLOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. GOES SOUNDER DPI IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...READY TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING MARKEDLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST STABILITY INDICES SHOW A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MEAN FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE SW...SO
THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST UPON SEA BREEZE
FORMATION. SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS EAST COAST...ALONG WITH
MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SO MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAT THE NAM WAS
SIDED. LOWERED POPS TONIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY...SINCE IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING AND THE BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD (FAVORABLE QUADRANT
FOR LIFT) OF A >100 KNOT JET TUE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG)...THOUGH THINKING IS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING OF STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR A
GENERAL 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AREA WIDE...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THESE EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (DUE
TO THE RECENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS)...THUS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NEEDED.

THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEN...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS HAS DELAYED THE
MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY...SO KNOCKED POPS DOWN FOR SATURDAY.

MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UPWARDS TO
15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. GULF STREAM SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
BACK DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON
THE WAY.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1043 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

FLZ063-066>075-161445-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING, SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER A WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS SEA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZES
INTERACT. EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER,
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO SEA/LAKE BREEZES AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTION.

FLOODING: PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL, THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             HIALEAH                 25.86N 80.29W
05/15/2006  E1.00 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF THE PALMETTO EXPRESSWAY AND
            OKEECHOBEE ROAD.

0220 PM     HAIL             DAVIE                   26.09N 80.30W
05/15/2006  E0.25 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR I-595 AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE.

0225 PM     HAIL             DORAL                   25.84N 80.36W
05/15/2006  E0.25 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL AND 45 MPH
            WINDS IN DORAL.

&&

MOLLEDA