Lightning Strike in Florida, July 8, 2006

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER S CENTRAL FL WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS
NE. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT BY MON
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS RIDGE AXIS SET UP OVER N FL.

AS FOR MOISTURE...FRONT MOVING ACROSS REGION TODAY IS ALLOWING SOME
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND IT. 12Z SOUNDING AT KJAX HAD 0.95
IN...WHEREAS THE KTLH SOUNDING HAD 1.24. GOES SOUNDER CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH SC/GA/AND N FL BEING THE
DRIEST. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT DRIEST AIR WILL MAKE IT DEEP INTO OUR
CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS THINKING OF AT HAVING POPS 10-20
PCT HIGHER THAN BEFORE. BY MON...EXPECT A SOLID RETURN TO
MOISTURE WITH AGAIN BEST POPS DOWN SOUTH. AM GOING WITH SCT POPS
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT LEVY WHERE WILL KEEP AT 20 PCT.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS. NATURE
COAST CAN EXPECT MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NEXT TWO
NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH WILL PORTEND A WEEK OF TYPICAL JULY WEATHER ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WITH BROAD EAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY
NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS LEADING TO MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD SEE A
MIX OF EARLIER DEVELOPING SHOWERS...PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES...SCOOTING A BIT FASTER ACROSS THE STATE IN
RESPONSE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF AN UPTICK IN CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT GIVEN THAT EVENT IS EXPECTED IN
LATTER PORTION (DAYS 4/5) OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT RECENT
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ALTERED WITH THE LATEST
12Z GFS WHICH HAS THE PLUME A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.

SOME DEEP LAYER DRYING SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE WAVE BUT GENERAL
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE CLIMATOLOGICAL
COVERAGE (50/50) EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP
OFF BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY SWINGING AROUND TO NE AS FRONT WASHES
OUT OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DOMINATED BY DAILY SEA
BREEZES AS GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE LIGHT. BY MONDAY AND FOR
THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT BERMUDA HIGH TO BUILD IN AND BRING AREA
INTO MORE TYPICAL JULY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST VESTIGES OF DEEP MOISTURE ARE ONLY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KFMY/KRSW) AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT HERE TOO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GIVING A NOD TO SOME FOG IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO N FL AT THIS TIME.
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES UP THERE
BASED ON DRIER AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. WITH UPDATED
VALUES...NOW HAVE 4 OR MORE HOURS DURATION OF LESS THAN 35 PCT RH
VALUES OVER LEVY COUNTY. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH UP THERE.
THANKS FOR COORDINATION TAE/JAX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  40
FMY  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  50
GIF  70  90  73  92 /  20  20  10  40
SRQ  72  89  71  91 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  66  91  67  92 /  10  10   5  30
SPG  75  89  76  90 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY COUNTY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
509 AM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081515-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
509 AM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.