Heavy Rain in Florida, July 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
218 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS PUSHED NWD AND STORMS HAVE ERUPTED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE UP TO THE FL/GA BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE GULF SW OF THE FL KEYS WHILE
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS SHIFTED TO THE FL WEST
COAST. MORE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM... SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END OF THE
WEEK. EXPECT 30-40% POPS FOR SRN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA TAPERING
TO SLGT CHANCE FOR INLAND SE GA THIS EVENING THEN RETURN TO MAINLY
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE MID/UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT WWD AND CONTINUE TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
NWD OVER FL ON WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS SRN COUNTIES
TAPERING TO 40% FOR SE GA. BY THURSDAY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. AS SEABREEZE PUSHES
INLAND EXPECT ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AS
A BACK DOOR FRONT SAGS INTO GEORGIA. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE RIDGE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE. WILL IGNORE THE
MYSTERIOUS LOW THAT THE DGEX CARRIES OVER FROM THE NAM. MODELS
SUGGEST A TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO NORTH
FL FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS FAR AS WINDS ARE
CONCERNED...BUT SWELLS LOOK TO INCREASE SEAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME
OF THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON TROPICAL WAVE FORMATION OVER THE
BAHAMAS...BUT REGARDLESS AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE LOOKS
REASONABLE. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  93  72  93 /  20  40  30  30
SSI  76  87  77  89 /  30  50  30  20
JAX  72  90  73  91 /  30  50  30  20
SGJ  74  87  76  89 /  40  50  30  20
GNV  72  91  72  92 /  30  60  40  30
OCF  72  92  73  92 /  30  60  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
556 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
556 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN ABOVE
NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS BREAKERS IN THE 2 TO 3 FEET
RANGE TODAY. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST SEA SWELLS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS LIKELY MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CAMP