Hail in Florida, February 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FIRE WEATHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY POSSIBLE IN THE ANALYSIS OVER N
FL...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE NE TX COAST. STILL EXPECTING
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...NOT IN THE SE PLAINS...TO MOVE EAST & DEEPEN
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO
THE LOWER 60S OVER N FL...UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WE ARE
SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON & HEATING WILL
ADD TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT LAPS DATA HAS THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...UNTIL THE UPPER
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE PLAINS REACHES N
FL...THEN CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT. LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST IS
MARGINAL...BUT GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL HELP. SPC DAY ONE
HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...&
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...& ISOLATED TORNADOES. WITH THURSDAYS HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS STATED...CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM AROUND
22Z TO 06Z...AS THE MAIN SURGE OF UPPER DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA. THE SURFACE LOW BY 06Z SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
EASTERN TN VALLEY...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE FL PANHANDLE. BY
12Z SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED TO NEAR
KGVN...TAKING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT. WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST EARLY SATURDAY...THEN BREAKING OUT
FROM NOON ON. NW FLOW SHOULD MIX THINGS QUICKLY AS WELL AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME STRATA-CU WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
SUNSET. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BECOMING CLEAR & COLD. TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND 30 WITH SOME
WIND KEEPING TEMPS UP A BIT...ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. SUNNY
& COOL FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A BIT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE EXPECTED. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS & A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. ALSO A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AIR FILTERS IN FOR TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SE U.S. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM & COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC ON GOING WITH WIND & SEAS. STILL LOOKS TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF & BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO SCA LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WELL OFFSHORE
WATERS...THEN LOWERING TO SCEC ON SUNDAY. LOWERING BELOW SCEC LATER
SUNDAY TO MONDAY...THEN BACK TO SCEC AS THE MONDAY SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TODAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL ISSUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR INLAND N FL...WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH OR
ABOVE & AN RH AROUND 35%...COULD SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MAY DRY OUT A BIT MORE TO HAVE
NEAR 35% FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL ISSUE WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTER LATER
RUNS ARE ANALYSIS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IT WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA TO ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TEMPO IFR INTO THE NIGHT. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR BY 14Z SATURDAY AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  53 60 29 62 / 50 20 00 00
PANAMA CITY  52 61 38 62 / 50 20 00 00
DOTHAN       50 56 32 58 / 50 20 00 00
ALBANY       50 57 31 58 / 50 20 00 00
VALDOSTA     54 60 32 61 / 50 20 00 00
CROSS CITY   56 63 35 62 / 50 20 00 00

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
     AREAS.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...AH/TB
PUBLIC/MARINE...MCT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
522 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-032042-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA...
ASHBURN...BAINBRIDGE...BLAKELY...BLOUNTSTOWN...BONIFAY...CAIRO...
CALLAWAY...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...CHIPLEY...COLQUITT...COTTONWOOD...
CRAWFORDVILLE...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...DALEVILLE...DAWSON...
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...DONALSONVILLE...DOWNTOWN DOTHAN...ELBA...
ENTERPRISE...FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...FORT RUCKER...GENEVA...
GEORGETOWN...HEADLAND...LAKELAND...LEESBURG...MADISON...MARIANNA...
MAYO...MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...NEWTON...
OCILLA...OZARK...PANAMA CITY...PANAMA CITY BEACH...PELHAM...PERRY...
PORT ST. JOE...PUTNEY...QUITMAN...SANTA ROSA BEACH...ST. MARKS...
STEINHATCHEE...SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON...
VALDOSTA AND VERNON
522 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT THIS MORNING. THEN...ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN LOUISIANA AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BEGINNING LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BUT ALL AREAS ARE AT RISK.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF THE REGION IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE SEEN IN MANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

ALTHOUGH MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING...THEY
WILL BE HIGHER WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR ANY STORMS. AS THE FRONT
EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE CREATING LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER THE
FRONT EXITS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
BREEZY AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR AND PREDAWN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
WITH THE APPROACHING SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

A RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS PARALLEL TO THE
BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL. TO ESCAPE...RIDE THE CURRENT OUT
BEYOND THE SURF ZONE WHERE THE RIP CURRENT DISSIPATES...THEN SWIM TO
SHORE OUTSIDE THE NARROW CURRENT.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. WATCH
YOUR CHILDREN. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND
UNGUARDED BEACHES.

24-BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
452 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ155>160-040200-
BAY FL-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN FL-COASTAL WALTON FL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-
FRANKLIN FL-GADSDEN FL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HOLMES FL-INLAND WALTON FL-
JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-
MADISON FL-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-THOMAS GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...APALACHICOLA...BAINBRIDGE...BLOUNTSTOWN...
BONIFAY...CAIRO...CALLAWAY...CARRABELLE...CHIPLEY...CRAWFORDVILLE...
CROSS CITY...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...DONALSONVILLE...MADISON...
MARIANNA...MAYO...MONTICELLO...PANAMA CITY...PANAMA CITY BEACH...
PERRY...PORT ST. JOE...QUITMAN...SANTA ROSA BEACH...ST. MARKS...
STEINHATCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...VALDOSTA AND VERNON
452 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...EFFECTIVE UNTIL
900 PM EST (800 PM CST) FRIDAY EVENING.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN GEORGIA...SEMINOLE...DECATUR...GRADY...THOMAS...BROOKS...
AND LOWNDES.

IN FLORIDA...WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...
CALHOUN...GULF...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...
JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE...AND LAFAYETTE.

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

8-JAMSKI