Hail in Florida, August 14, 2006

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1255 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

VISIBLE LOOP SHOWED LARGE AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS OVER INTERIOR
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS
FORMING FROM WINTER HAVEN THROUGH SEBRING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION NEAR SPACE COAST. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS NORTH TO NUMEROUS STORMS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STORMS 40 NM OFFSHORE WERE ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS
FORMED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. MODELS TAKE LOW NORTH DURING PERIOD BUT DIFFER ON LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF FEATURES.

EXPECT LEFT OVER CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SARASOTA-
SEBRING...THEN ISOLATED STORMS OFF SHORE OVERNIGHT.

GFS MOS CONTINUES TREND OF LOWERING POPS (TO 30%) DUE TO DRIER AIR
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT GOOD MOISTURE UNDER 12 KFT AND LIFTED
INDEX TO DROP TO -7C AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS
DRIFTS OVER FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...DRY AIR ABOVE 12 KFT MAY
ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORM.
WILL KEEP POPS 10% HIGHER THAN MOS.

MOISTURE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GULF OF
MEXICO. LEFT FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY WITH 40% AFTERNOON STORMS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF BAHAMA LOW.

.LONG TERM(WED NGT-MON)...THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR SIMPLICITIES SAKE...I WILL ASSUME THAT
REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL BE
OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THURSDAY. THIS ASSUMPTION MAY WELL PROVE TO BE
INCORRECT...AND CHANGES WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE MADE BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
MAINLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING FROM
THE INTERIOR TO THE WEST COAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ACCEPTED
00Z MEX ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF 40 POPS AREA WIDE EACH DAY...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATIC NORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST THROUGH PERIOD WITH
WAVES TO BE 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST AS STEERING FLOW IS MAINLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPO
MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE MAY PUSH EAST OF TERMINALS BY 22Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SRQ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  89 /  20  50  20  40
FMY  76  91  75  90 /  30  60  20  50
GIF  74  90  75  91 /  20  50  20  40
SRQ  78  89  75  89 /  30  60  20  40
BKV  72  91  71  90 /  20  30  20  30
SPG  80  89  79  88 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NOAH
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
503 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER DAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS... AND SMALL HAIL. IF LIGHTNING IS
OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
422 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

FLZ065-142100-
LEE-
422 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY...5 TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONITA
SPRINGS...UNTIL 500 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE
PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
431 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

FLZ050-142100-
PINELLAS-
431 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
PINELLAS COUNTY INCLUDING CLEARWATER AND PALM HARBOR...

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH...WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS FROM PALM HARBOR...EAST LAKE...OLDSMAR...AND CLEARWATER
UNTIL 500 PM EDT. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED BUT WILL LAST NO MORE
THAN A FEW MINUTES IN ANY ONE LOCATION. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
536 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

FLZ062-142200-
CHARLOTTE-
536 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POUNDING CHARLOTTE COUNTY INCLUDING PUNTA
GORDA WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND HAIL...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING LITTLE...WILL AFFECT THE I 75 AND TAMIAMI TRAIL
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING CHARLOTTE PARK AND PUNTA GORDA...UNTIL
600 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY
WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

BSG