Damaging Wind in Delaware, July 27, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE ABUNDANT CAPES ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM, BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS GOING. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 AND
3000 J/KG ACCORDING TO LAPS AT 18Z. IN A FEW HOURS, I EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...SO I WILL KEEP THE
CHC POPS FOR THE EVENING. THE WRF AND GFS MODELS ARE BOTH SHOWING A
SHORT WAVE OVER SW PA THAT WILL CROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS
EVENING. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE 40 POP PAST THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TO BETTER ALIGN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE STORMS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
DOWNPOURS SINCE THEY MAY BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING. LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SPC HAS PLACED PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS THE TAIL OF UPPER JET MAX SWINGING THROUGH DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND WITH THIS AIR MASS...THIS OUTLOOK LOOKS
GOOD. WE INTEND ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (PHLSPSPHI)
BOTH TO CALL ATTENTION  TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW AND
THE THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S BOTH TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. THE INDICES
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH ANY WARNING LEVEL TOMORROW WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ON
SATURDAY, WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING DISTURBANCE, SO
DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT LOWER WITH NW WINDS.

THE VORT MAX EXITS JUST IN TIME TO GIVE A DRY DAY FOR SATURDAY. I
WILL KEEP THE DRY FCST FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HOT AND HUMID WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES
CLOSER TO 100. HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND I HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN MODELS FOR
DETERMINING THE AREAS/CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DWINDLE AFTER SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING A HEAT WAVE TO MANY AREAS THAT WILL BEGIN IN THE
SHORT TERM. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH DAY IN MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE SHORE AND POCONOS). DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES TOO...SO HEAT
INDICES IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE WILL BE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE H5 HEIGHTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW BUILDING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER THAT.
ACCORDINGLY...OUR FCST FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MON AND TUE WITH
THE BUILDING RIDGE. DECIDED THAT IT WAS BEST TO LEAVE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSEST TO THE STORM TRACK.
CHC OR SLIGHT CHC POPS USED MORE EXTENSIVELY WED AND THU AS THE
UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND A SFC FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING OVER
NY STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAFS WEVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TWO HOURS FOR
TSTMS BY INCLUDING A TEMPO GROUP WITH A MODERATE RAIN SHOWER AND
CUMULONIMBUS.  FOR KRDG THOSE TWO HOURS ARE FROM 5 TO 7 PM, FOR KABE
AND KILG 6 TO 8 PM, FOR KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KMIV 7 TO 9 PM, AND FOR KACY
8 TO 10 PM.  BASICALLY, WEVE TIMED THE ARRIVAL OF THE BROKEN LINE
OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED FROM AROUND ELMIRA TO WILLIAMSPORT TO
MARTINSBURG AT 2:30 PM.  SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION HAD BROKEN OUT AHEAD
OF THE LINE IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.  WELL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION AND ADJUST THE TAFS IF NEED BE.

ONCE THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
EVENING, THERE COULD BE TWO OR THREE HOURS OF LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY SEEMS TO DECREASE BEYOND MIDNIGHT SO WE
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

FOR THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK, WEVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES.  ITS FORMATION WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT ACTUALLY FALLS THIS EVENING
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

WEVE IMPROVED MOST OF OUR TAF SITES BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY MORNING.  WE DID KEEP SOME HAZE FOR KRDG, KTTN
AND KMIV.  WE THEN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR MARINE AREA TO
SOME DEGREE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY INTO THE MARINE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST TO REASSERT ITSELF ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE ON SUNDAY, AGAIN WITH A
QUICK RETURN OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE NEW WEEK.

ALL IN ALL, IT SEEMS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS AND WAVES ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS STAYING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-281000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
250 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEAT INDICIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND COULD REACH
100, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLANIA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE HUMID BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAUBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

PAZ067-280045-
CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WEST CHESTER
634 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE AFFECT CHESTER
COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CHESTER COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
STORMS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

NIERENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
643 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NE CARBO             41.01N 75.60W
07/27/2006                   CARBON             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING FUND GROVE
            DR. IN ALBRIGHTSVILLE

0536 PM     HAIL             5 S READING             40.27N 75.93W
07/27/2006  E0.50 INCH       BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN PLOWVILLE.

0541 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BELFAST             40.81N 75.27W
07/27/2006                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN PLAINFIELD TWP.

0541 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NAZARETH                40.74N 75.31W
07/27/2006                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON EAST SHOENECK RD IN NAZARETH BOROUGH.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE EAST BANGOR        40.90N 75.16W
07/27/2006                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN UPPER MT. BETHEL TWP ON AUDOBON DR AND FOX
            CAP RD.

&&

ROBERTSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
646 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

PAZ061-062-280100-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
646 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LEHIGH AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL LEHIGH HAND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES.
THIS STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

NIERENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
713 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NE CARBO             41.01N 75.60W
07/27/2006                   CARBON             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING FUND GROVE
            DR. IN ALBRIGHTSVILLE

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MOHNTON            40.27N 75.96W
07/27/2006                   BERKS              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE, STARTING IN CUMRU TWP
            AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST THROUGH PIKE TWP.

0536 PM     HAIL             5 S READING             40.27N 75.93W
07/27/2006  E0.50 INCH       BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN PLOWVILLE.

0541 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NAZARETH                40.74N 75.31W
07/27/2006                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON EAST SHOENECK RD IN NAZARETH BOROUGH.

0541 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BELFAST             40.81N 75.27W
07/27/2006                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN PLAINFIELD TWP ON LEFEVBRE RD.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE EAST BANGOR        40.90N 75.16W
07/27/2006                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN UPPER MT. BETHEL TWP ON AUDOBON DR AND FOX
            CAP RD.

&&

ROBERTSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
852 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POCONO PINES            41.12N 75.46W
07/27/2006                   MONROE             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VARIOUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTY-WIDE.

&&

HELMETAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1108 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

NJZ018-019-280515-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY
1108 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE GLOUCESTER
AND CAMDEN COUNTY LINE. IT WAS MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH BUT ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE STORMS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED
BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY REACH 40 TO 45 MPH AND SOME STREET FLOODING.

EBERWINE