NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 1, 10:05 AM EST, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 1, 10:05 AM EST, 4 hours 55 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006
.UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, WINDS, POPS AND SKY
COVER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDE AT THIS TIME.
HAPPY FRIDAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/
SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. AN OCCLUDED 981 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT LOCATED IN THE LABRADOR SEA, SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES, AND
FINALLY CONNECTING TO AN INTENSIFYING 999 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDER. FROM THIS LOW, ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ONTARIO, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE BEHIND ITIN EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY STARTS OFF QUITE DIFFERENTLY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. INSTEAD
OF DENSE FOG, WE HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO NOT
HAVE DENSE FOG ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES, BUT WE DO HAVE A NUMBER OF
OTHER DIFFERENT ADVISORIES. A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN STORE FOR
US TODAY, RANGING FROM STRONG WINDS, TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. A VERY
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THIS FRONT, VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 60 KTS, AND THESE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD
REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BERKS COUNTY, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AS THEY HAVE THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AND ARE LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THESE STRONG WINDS
WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION. WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA, AS THEY WILL STILL LIKELY SEE STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION, THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS STRONG AS THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WE DO EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIKELYHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE GET. MODELS ARE FORECASTING M/U CAPES
NEARING 500 J/KG AND LIS APPROACHING MINUS 1-2 DEG C AND TOTAL
TOTAL IN THE UPPER 40S. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS ONGOING, AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVING IN. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY, AND IF ANY SUNSHINE OCCURS TODAY WITH ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, THIS COULD DESTABLILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN
MORE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 60-70 KTS, THIS IS HELPING
TO CREATE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
OCCUR, WE STILL EXPECT STRONG WINDS, HENCE THE WIND WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. PWS ARE GOING TO BE OVER 1.5 INCHES, SO THERE WILL BE
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUICK MOVING AND NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PONDING ON LOCAL ROADWAYS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND THE WIND
AND RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD BE DOMINATED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COASTAL LOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA, SO WE
HAVE BEGUN TO LOWER POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WE STILL MAINTAIN CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
HOWEVER. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION...
ANSWER TO HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION BECOMES MAY BE ANSWERED AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE 88D IS SHOWING JUST A FEW
HITS ON THE CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME MIDDLE LVL MOISTURE. A WIDE VIEW
FROM SATL SHOWS THE HIGH LVL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA. POINT IS, THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY
TO IGNITE SOME VERY STRONG TSTMS AT SOME OF THE AIRPORTS. TAFS AT
THIS POINT INDICATE GUSTS TO 45 AND 50 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
CERTAINLY, ANYONE TRAVELING WEST FROM HERE SHOULD CHECK THE WEATHER
OR VISIT THE WEB SITE AT AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER PAGE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV. A GOOD PART OF THE REGION IS IN THE
MODERATE RISK OF SVR TSTMS/PSBL TORNADO WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR
CATEGORY AND SEASON. SOME REAL HARD HITTING WEATHER IN STORE. EVEN
WITHOUT THE WINDS FROM CONVECTION, THE GRADIENT WIND IS GOING TO BE
QUITE STRONG AND MAY EVEN PRODUCE 50 KTS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED AROUND THE REGION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE VSBY/CIGS. IN
A FEW HOURS, THE CIGS MAY DROP BELOW 1,000 FT.
WINDS AT THIS HOUR GUSTING OVER 20 KTS IN PA/NJ AND DE. THAT WILL BE
THE GENERAL DIRECTION TODAY BUT SPEEDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY UP TO
AND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE
VERY STRONG, 70-80 KTS AT 5,000 FT SO WITH THE 12Z TAF UPDATE WILL
BE INCLUDING WIND SHEAR DATA. IN THIS CASE A SPEED SHEAR.
MAKE SURE TO SECURE OR HANGAR THE AIRCRAFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TONIGHT. ALSO, TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND THEN LOWER BELOW
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. MAKE SURE TANKS ARE TOPPED OFF TO AVOID
FREEZING IN THE FUEL LINES.
MARINE...
WNDS AND SEAS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
QUICK-SCAT WINDS SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLIES NORTH WHICH WILL HELP TO BUILD THE SEAS TODAY. IN
THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE WILL HEADLINE GALES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE WILL
HAVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS UP TO THAT TIME. THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE
GOING TO BE VERY ROUGH ON THE WATER INCLUDING GOING TO THE CANYONS.
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV HAS RAISED GALES
TO STORM WARNINGS.
THE POWERFUL FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE COAST AROUND 8 PM. AHEAD OF
IT THE WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY STRONG BUT JUST A
PORTION OF THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN, UNLESS IN CONVECTION, AS THE
WARM AIR OVERRIDES THE COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. NEAR THE COAST, OR
AT MOST MARINAS, THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THERE A GOOD PART OF THE
DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS SYSTEMS IS REALLY MOVING FAST AND BY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW IS
NORTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BECAUSE IT WAS SO STRONG, THE COLD AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IT IS KEEP FRESH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING WHICH
WILL LOWER THE NEARSHORE SEAS BUT KEEP THE WIND GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KT INTO SUNDAY. PERHAPS THE BEST PLACE TO FISH WILL BE IN THE BACK
BAYS OR VERY CLOSE TO THE BEACH. AND, MUCH COLDER AIR IS GOING TO
INVADE THE REGION.
TIDES...
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALL DAY TODAY WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
WATER LEVELS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HEADWATERS.
OUR MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE BAY COULD GET
ABOVE MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, OR 4.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING
DRIVEN BY WINDS THAT WILL REACH AROUND 40 MPH OR SO. IF THE WINDS
ARE LIGHTER WELL HAVE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. THEREFORE A COASTAL
FLOOD FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THAT PART OF
THE EASTERN SHORE AND KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MODERATE.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT AND STRONG WEST WIND WILL FOLLOW AND
BY SATURDAY MAY CAUSE THE TIDE TO RUN NEAR 3 FT BELOW NORMAL BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. QUITE A REVERSAL. IF THATS THE CASE, WITH AN
ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS BELOW MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS FALL TO 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER AT LOW TIDE.
WITH ALL THAT IS GOING ON NOW, FEEL THAT A MENTION OF LOW WATERS IS
WARRANTED WITH SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE.
ANYWAY, THIS COULD TURN INTO ONE EVENT BAD WEATHER DAY
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ067>071.
NJ...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NJZ001-007-008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ009-010-012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
AN...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430.
&&
UPDATE...MEOLA
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....ROBERTSON
AVIATION/MARINE...EBERWINE.