Tornadoes and Hail in Colorado, June 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
302 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING COVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR
THE WY-NE BORDER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY
SUNRISE.  FOR LATER TODAY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL
GENERALLY BE ESE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE.  SHOULD SEE TSTMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTN IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING
EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT WRF IS FOCUSING BEST ACTIVITY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE
EASTWARD INTO ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN.  SFC BASED
CAPES WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE 1500=2000 J/KG RANGE BY MID AFTN AND
WITH 30-35 KT OF WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD SEE SOME SVR STORMS.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL WITH INCREASING ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY
AFTN MAY SEE A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER ERN ELBERT AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BE THE STRONGEST.
IN THE MTNS MAY SEE SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AS WELL WITH
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL OVER THE AREA.  HIGHS TODAY OVER
NERN CO WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BASED ON 700 MB
TEMP FCST.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH NWLY FLOW MIXING DOWN OFF THE MTNS. MOISTURE AND WIND
FIELDS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS
DURING THE MORNING ONLY AS FAR EAST AS A SFC TROUGH LYING SOMEWHERE
OUT ACROSS LINCOLN...WASHINGTON AND LOGAN COUNTIES. EAST OF THIS
BNDRY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WHERE WNDS GUSTY FM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY 00Z/SAT...MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW FORMING ON THIS BNDRY NEAR THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEN MODELS SHOW THIS CIRCULATION CENTER SLIDING SWRD ALG THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH ALLOWS THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR TO WRAP BACK INTO THE
FRONT RANGE DURING EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY MID-LEVELS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE LOOKS CAPPED...SO BULK OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.
ON SATURDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT. BUT
WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS IN PLACE STRONG SOLAR HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLD/WDLY SCT T-STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME WITH PASSAGE OF ONE
MAYBE TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS. MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW FM
MTNS EASTWARD PETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WITH WEAK QG
ASCENT FROM TIME TO TIME AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING BY 10-20 PERCENT ABOVE THAT
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

BY TUESDAY...AIRMASS DRIES OUT AGAIN WITH UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND WRN COLORADO. EVEN SO...SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
PRINCIPALLY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RPK/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1053 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006

COZ030>051-231200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1053 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS BY AROUND MIDDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE EAST
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADOES FROM SUPERCELL STORMS.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE PLAINS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AT MIDDAY
AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY BY PRODUCING WEAK RISING
MOTION IN THE AIR MASS.

ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 200 PM.

GARD/RJK