Tornado and Hail in Colorado, June 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CONTINUING OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...SHOULD SEE THESE END BEFORE MIDMORNING. DEW POINTS OVR THE
SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE AIR MASS OVR THE ERN
AREAS WL REMAIN QUITE MOIST TODAY.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WL BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHILE WRLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS...MOVING
INTO ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1000-2200 J/KG...WITH LI/S OF -4 TO
-6C...AND SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS.  WILL AGAIN SEE SCT TSTMS
DEVELOP OVR THE SERN PLAINS TODAY AND COULD SEE A FEW BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.  NAM DEVELOPS AN MCS
OVR THE SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THUS PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN AREAS
WL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND WL MAKE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS.   MAX TEMPS TODAY WL
GENERALLY BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVR ERN AREAS.  MIN RH VALUES
TODAY NEAR THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
25-35 PERCENT...WITH ABOVE 35 PERCENT FOR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THUS
THERE REALLY ARE NOT ANY FIRE WEA CONCERNS.  ONE CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE MATO VEGA AND WRIGHT FIRES TODAY WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WITH WRN AREAS BEING
DRIER THAN THE E...SHOULD ONLY SEE ISOLD TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. MIN RH VALUES OVR THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS AND THE
HIGH VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT.  WITH THE
DRIER LOWER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS...THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

LONG TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEKEND ALONG WITH A COOL AND WET TREND REDEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATING CENTER OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. WITH H7 TEMPS
BETWEEN 12C AND 18C HELPING TO CAP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE
KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL POPS INTACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AIDING IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WITH COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW REDEVLOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A TAD EXPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVELS
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP
EXPECTED...HAVE COOLED HIGHS A TAD THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL...BUT
BELIEVE MEX A TAD TO COOL...WITH ONLY LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND LOOKS TO
REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FLATTENS RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WITH WARMER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

28/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-231645-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1031 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND NOON...THEN MOVE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. WITH INCREASED WIND SHEAR
IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
THAT DEVELOP...WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WINDS GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH
IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY AFTER 1 PM TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.